Hammer on wheat and corn

Hammer on wheat and corn, triggered. 

After I entered, price went against me.  Am I worry?  The answer is "no".  As I know what I am doing.  I follow my rule. 

1) I trade what I see.
2) I already preset my stop loss inside the trading platform.

This is exactly what I always said -

• Trade what you see and not what you think   
• Before you enter an order, you need to have a specific reason.  Listen to someone or because others are buying...then forget it
• Before you enter that trade ask yourself another question - where is my stop loss.  And make sure you follow this rule.  When it hit your stop loss, cut without hesitation. 

Some people may ask me, what about the profit portion.  Why I did not mention anything about this?  My answer is depend on your personal appetite.  For me, I shall let profit run.  I will only take profit when there is a sell signal for this case.  This is what I called "your stop loss is controllable but your profit is unlimited".     

Brexit panic wiped $2 trillions off world market

Last Friday, we saw a typical roller coaster ride in the global market.  Asia investors/traders were the first one to take the ride. 

Asia market plunged around 2% after market opened when result showed that Brexit's voters was leading.  Around 10am, market turned around when result showed Bremain voters leaded.  Market shoot up, broke Thursday closing price and some markets even crossed their resistant level. Unfortunately this cheer did not last long.  An hour later, once again Brexit turned around to lead.  This time, market took the second plunge, all the way down to negative 3%, 4%, 5%.......  US future even at one time triggered the 5% cooling alarm.  FTSE future down by 9.5%....... 

The ride did not stop here. At 3pm, Europe stock market opened.  CAC, DAX.......plunged seem unstoppable.  However, hours later, we started to see FTSE recovered from its -9.5% loss to -7.5% to -6.5%......  By then, Asia market went into T+1.  By 9.30pm, US stock markets opened.  Global market started to follow the US, recovered from losses.  Unfortunately, this gained did not last long either.  Hours later, markets started to plunge once again al the way to closing.

This Brexit panic wiped $2 trillions off world market.  Sterling pound slumped to 31 years low.  In Singapore, several people rushed to the money changer, hoping to cash in on the sliding pound.  However, these people were disappointed after being turned away by money changers who either refused to sell or claimed they had no more stock.

More than seventy-five percent of the people did not expect Brexit to happen.  If you are one of them who tap on to a lot of the so called expert called, you should know most of them has little worried about the result of the Brexit to happen.  When labour MP Jo Cox was shot on 16-Jun, market shoot up.  We saw UK market continuously up for seven days ranging between 1% to 3.5%.  I received message, email, called from my those well known remiser (retail investors/traders called them expert) advice me to buy.  And so once again, I learned what I had been always been sharing in my blog - Do not trust anyone, do your own homework.  And trade what you see and not what you think.

The Brexit result is out, so what next? 

How much more the market is going to sell down?  That very much depend on the result aftermath.  PM David Cameron announced resign.  Scotland first minister Nicola Sturgeon pledges to protect Scottish EU interests.  More than two million have signed a petition calling for a second EU votes.........Will Scotland fight for independent?  Will other EU members follow what UK did?  This is something that worry the EU most. 

Over the past few years, we saw country after country printing money, lower their interest rate.........   All those artificial things been done did not really help the economic.  Instead, it went into the market.

People, the lowest income together with the sandwich class struggled to survive.  They don't live much happier than yesterday, the day before, the month before, the year before......... We saw inflation number with only 0.5%, some countries even having 0%, -0.5%, ........  But ask ourselves the daily food, groceries....that we purchase, got more expensive or cheaper?  And by how much?  Oil came down from hundred over dollars to forty over dollars.  You drive your car to the petrol station.  How much you are paying per litres?   

These people became frustrated.  They started to vote for someone who really speak for them.  Beside the Brexit, we look at the recent selected Philippine president Rordrigo Duterte, US Donald Trump........  Of course, how capable those guys are, that is another side of the story.  However, if they are able to prove their capabilities after been elected and got into the parliament, by then we will start to see politician starts to go into the another direction. 

The next few days or even weeks, market can be very volatile.  It may not be that easy and straight forward.  How panicked the market can be, depends on what I mentioned earlier- the aftermath.  Government funds will come in to support the equities market.  Short term and intraday traders will do the ride.  This group of traders can go either way.  One thing for sure, they will surf with wind direction.  So trade with care.

My new website: http://achua138.wix.com/mysite

Friday, number of markets end with a sell signal

Big boys think, see and act differently from the majority.  End of April, we saw the panic sell down by the retail traders / investors.  These people were worried about the curse of "Sell in May and go away".  But then what the big boys did?  Have you ask yourself, you, yourself, coffee shop uncles and aunties were selling, then where the buyers come from?  Who are they?

Whenever you feel/think that the market 完蛋了, the hope and greed return.  The market turned around in mid May.  The big boys created hope.  And there we were, the greed returned.  People started to buy.

温水煮青蛙.  Europe and Asia market are inside the bear territory.  I said that many times, the market will not crash like what we saw in Y2009.  The US market is still on bull.  So beside the Bexit,, watch the US market closely. 

The roller coaster ride will continue.  Friday end with number of indictors like STI bearish engulfing triggered, Taiwan IB, Hang Seng shooting star, FTSE and CAC IB triggered, DOW and S&P IB triggered.............  So be very careful this week.  Volatility is back again. 


Past few weeks, I worked on one new website.  Here is the link:  http://achua138.wix.com/mysite

New website

Once again Taiwan took the lead.  16-May, we saw a hammer and next day triggered.  Following 3 weeks, it went up significantly (you can see from the below chart).  Thursday and Friday, Taiwan market closed for the dumpling festival.  Nevertheless, Wednesday it closed with an IB.  Look out on next Monday if it trigger. 

These few weeks, I worked on one new website.  Here is the link:  http://achua138.wix.com/mysite

Appreciate your support.

Tawian Future hammer triggered

Taiwan future hammer triggered.  Politician likely to support this week 520 hand-over.

Combat engineer failed to lay the bridge across

It has been an interesting Y2016, wasn't it?  The coaster ride was more wild than Y2015. 

Before we take a look at what happened over the past 4 weeks, let me recap some of the important points that I highlighted in my past Y2016 posted.  

1-Jan :

1) I posted 2 charts - Taiwan index and DAX (http://achua138.blogspot.sg/2016/01/prepare-for-much-more-interesting-2016.html).  I mentioned this - Elliott Wave

2) US election, a similar approach (how Taiwan supported their market during their president election) but different version on the US market. 

3) 温水煮青蛙, and I warned a much more interesting Y2016 drama is on the way.

9-Jan:

1) Once again I mentioned the 温水煮青蛙 and

2) I highlighted the "ba ku teh" soup story

3) Many things that happened over the past few years were artificial.

4) Any retracement/pull back is an opportunity for you to sell if you are holding any long position.  In Chinese, I called it 逃命反弹.

18-Jan :

1) Once again I highlighted the 逃命反弹 (I mentioned again and again)

2) Those who want to buy on rebound, make sure you know when to sell as you

3) Trade what you see and not what you think (I mentioned this so many times)

4) Furthermore, today market is mend for trade (I mentioned this many times too)
5) Do not listen to others

22-Mar & 11-April :

1) Market needs a "change hand" 洗盘. 

2) The first 2 batches big boys were alighting

3) I illustrated by using commando, guards, combat engineer and infantry.

4) Careful, if this 洗盘 failed, then game over.

And yes, the commando and guards have alighted.  The combat engineer took over the task to build the bridge across so that the infantry can cross over.  But they failed.   

Let's look at the recent market leader - Taiwan market which was one the hardest hit on this sell down.  The second leader and also one of the hardest hit market - STI. 

Taiwan charting.  The chart tells me that the recent free fall came not only from the combat engineer but also the infantry which was the retail traders.  And not only fear, they were panic too.  When they saw the sell down, they were probably worried and panic about the curse of "sell in May and go away". 

What I will be watching right now is the blue wave which represent investors.  If this group starts to sell and go into fear or worst panic mood, this is where the market is going to be ........  Secondly, I will be watching closely on the US market.  On the other hand, I will be watching for any potential turning signal whenever it come to support level.

STI, same the Taiwan market.  Combat engineer failed to lay the bridge across.....panic sell down by the retail traders.  Things to look out for - action from investors and the US market.  Flip side, look for signal at the support level.   

Now, let's look at the Europe market - DAX.  It filled the important magnet 9700 gap.   It halted for the time mean.  If it continue to fall, I will be watching at 9500, 8967 to 9125 gap and 8700 support for any potential rebound signal.  On the down fall, I will be watching closely on the US market.

Now, our big brother US market.  Let's pull out the DOW charting.  DOW faced pressure whenever it come close to 18350 peak.  The rainbow wave is squeezing.  How long it can stay inside there?  Will it rebound or will it break through the last section, blue wave.  We may have a answer soon.

Top side, we know pressure.  What about if it break down?  US election year, will FED save the market?  They will not.  FED will only save the market when.......  Look at the chart and see yourself, when the market came down fiercely, where it hit and rebounded?  How many times that happened?  That area is a super important support level.  Remember that.

Knowing and respecting the big brother.  When they sneeze everyone feels the chill.  Boiling the "ba ku teh" soup continues.  How the soup and "ba ku" are going taste and look like, you figure out.  温水煮青蛙, market is squeezing you piece by piece. 

You trade what you see and not what you think.  Don't listen to others.  Don't listen to what others said oh today down because of Japan, tomorrow market down because of China......next day up because the non-farm number was........down because China import number........ Don't follow to swing with all those stupid news and rumours.  Don't follow and dance too much with those numbers. 

Today market is mend for trade.  Do your own homework.  Learn how to see market differently from the majority.  Learn to understand and recognise when and which piece of info and economic data really come into play. 

Shooting star at level on EUR/USD triggered