STI broke descending line, touched 2013YEC and first time trading above 200MA

Remember I kept highlighting this – March window dressing, fund managers will test the 2013YEC.  And the road towards 2013YEC is going to be bumpy.  I highlighted that since the third week of February.  I mentioned that in my blog, thrice.  The last one was on 14-Mar  http://achua138.blogspot.sg/2014/03/anyone-remember-3-important-things-that.html.  Anyone remember that?  Beside the 2013YEC, I also highlighted a few pointers in knowing the market is about to turn.  What are they, anyone remember that?  Yes, candle pattern especially at level and any pattern formed or changes like inverted head and shoulder, ...........? 

 

Now, let’s recap what happened over the past 2 weeks.  11-Mar, shooting star at descending line, followed by continuously three days gap down.  Then it was supported at FIBO 61.8%.  However, few days later it penetrated through the 61.8% support and reached FIBO 50%.  The beautiful part happened here, candle pattern NT2 formed at level.  And the second candle was an inverted hammer.  Next day, a reverse head and shoulder was formed too.  Yesterday, we saw a break out from the descending line.   Today, STI finally touched 2013YEC 3167 and closed at 3162.  Not only that, first time in the year of 2014, STI is trading above 200MA.

 

Where is STI heading towards?  And where are those support and resistant levels that we should watch out? 3167 is the first gate for STI.  STI needs to stay above this level before we look at second, third and fourth gates.  Second gate is 3200, third gate 3230 and fourth gate is 3280.  I will look at 3300 instead 3280.  Look at the chart, if STI can break 3300, where is the next resistant by then?  No right, all the way to last year 3465 high?  But for myself, I shall base on that moment situation to calculate the next resistant level, just like what I did for DOW and S&P.  From another angle, what if STI couldn't stand above 3167 and it turn south instead of heading north?  Look at those FIBO support levels that I drew on the chart, they are still valid.    

 

Having said that, do not forget to watch for candle pattern especially at level and any pattern formed or change like head and shoulder…….  And knowing who are the big brothers plus things happening around the world.  Next week there are couple of important reports to be release by the US – ADP, non-farm, unemployment rate……… Watch out on that.  April will be the month for companies to release their first quarter reports.  So make sure you are holding the correct stocks/counters.  Last but not least, world cup will be held in Brazil on this coming June.  So watch out for the curse of “Sell in May and go away”.  

 

Shooting star, head and shoulder, lower low lower high - how it look like?

I received couple of questions from my previous posted.  I couldn’t see “lower low lower high leh.  Where ah?”  “Which candle/where is shooting star?”  “Where is head and shoulder?  How it look like?” 

 

Let me used DBS bank charting.  Refer to what I written on the chart.  For shooting star, refer to the second “STI” charting.  Shooting star is a signal, warning us that there is a high chance of direction change.  

 

A lot of people spend thousands of dollars just to learn candle stick.  Probably I should consider doing that business.  May be I can get more student than other trainers if I charge only dollars eight hundred and eighty eight.  Hmm……...anyone interested? 

 

Recap and what's next?

Anyone remember the 3 important things that I mentioned about STI?  If no, refer to what I posted on
21-Feb http://achua138.blogspot.sg/2014/02/two-pressure-acting-on-sti-gap-plus.html,
26-Feb http://achua138.blogspot.sg/2014/02/i-do-not-like-idea-of-open-high-close.html
and 3-Mar http://achua138.blogspot.sg/2014/03/sti-supprt-level-fibo-50618.html . 

Have you got the answer?  If still not quite, let me summaries it:-

• 21-Feb, I mentioned that two pressures are acting on STI - Fibo and gap.  If it broke that 3099 resistant, the next resistant level that I will be looking at is between the range of 3130 to 3150.
• 26-Feb, I said that I do not like the idea of "Opened High Closed Low".  With that four continuous opened high, closed low candles, I declare that the smooth rebound has come to an end.  Even if it will to test 2013YEC 3167, the road is going to be bumpy. 
• 3-Mar, reference to the first chart, I asked this question - whole picture tells you STI is on an up trend or down trend?  Nothing much happen to Ukraine and with acceptable US reports, STI will rebound but watch out the decline line that I drew.  If the market flip, refer to the second charting which I had reverted the Fibo.  And look for first support level at 50~61.8% and second support at............

All the above come true.  The smooth rebound came to an end.  Ukraine issue caused the market to retrace but rebounded.  However when it touched that decline line which is also Fibo 23.6% resistant , it formed a shooting star.  A long shadow reached the height of 3145, then the market opened with a gap down over the next two days and also today. 

How I foresee and came out with all these.  Simple.  Just let me show you three of the important STI stocks - Banks.  Look at the 3 charting, what did you see?  Did you see lower low lower high?  The charts are indicating an up trend or down trend?   

So what's next?  Support, for the time mean look at Fibo.  First support at Fibo 50~61.8%, then follow by 38.2%..... Also know who is the big and second brothers.  Respect them and monitor them closely.  Thirdly, what is happening around the world like the recent one, Ukraine. 

When I know the market is about to turn?  Base on TA, at this time look for candle pattern especially at level and any pattern formed or change like inverted head and shoulder, ...........And do not forget the 2013YEC psychology level.

 

Beside resales now rental volume also started to drop

Overall HDB Cash-Over-Valuation (COV) dropped from $3,000 in January 2014 to zero in Feb 2014.  Twelve out of 26 HDB Towns saw zero or negative median COV.

Bukit Panjang, Punggol, Sembawang, Sengkang and Woodlands led the drop with negative overall median COVs recorded in Feb.  Bedok, Bukit Batok, Chao Chu Kang, Geylang, Jurong West, Tampines and Yishun recorded zero overall median COV.

Almost four in ten HDB deals closed below valuation.  According to transaction records from srx.com.sg agencies, 37.3% of HDB resale deals were closed below valuation in February. This represents a 7.9 percentage point increase from 29.4% of negative COVs in Jan.   Overall, HDB resale prices fell 1.8% in February.  HDB prices now are at the same levels as 20 months ago in Jun 2012.

According to flash estimates, 734 HDB flats were sold in February's resale market, a 20.0% month-on-month drop from Jan 2014's 918 units.  On a year-on-year basis, February's resale volume posted a smaller 6.3% drop from 783 flats sold over the same month of last year.

Rental volume dropped 13.7% y-o-y.  An estimated 1,118 HDB flats were rented in February 2014, 25.3% less than Jan's 1,496 rental transactions. On a year-on-year basis, February's rental volume posted a 11.9% drop from 1,296 flats leased over the same month of last year. 

Top 15 defence budgets 2013

DBS has a head and shoulder. Watch out if it break the neck line

 

STI supprt level - Fibo 50~61.8%

Last Friday STI closed at 3110, end 14 points up.  Something to cheer on was it had an opened low closed high.  Unfortunately, this morning it tumble.  Gap down to 3078, 32 points down when market opened.  Few minutes later, it dived further to 3067. 

Remember I keep saying that the recent STI up, up, up is a "rebound". Why?  You look at the first white background charting, the decline line that I drew.  The whole picture tells you, STI is on up trend or down trend?  It can't break that declining line since September 2013.  Isn't it? 

As US market goes higher, it get more fragile.  Any bad news may cause the market to tumble.  This week we are suppose to concentrate on US PMI, ISM.........No-Farm reports.  But now, there is an additional thing that we need to watch out - Ukraine.  Let's see how Europe and tonight US markets respond to this. 

Nothing much serious plus acceptable reports from the US may lead the market to rebound.  Otherwise on STI, look at the second charting which was capture at 2.30pm.  I had reverted the Fibo, watch for 50~61.8% support level.  If down some more, second support at 23.6%

To answer my friends who asked me this question during the last weekend, for STI to really turn into an up trend as I mentioned in my previous posted http://achua138.blogspot.sg/2013/12/sti-broke-traingle-boxing-and-3120.html provided it broke 3300.