Wednesday 20 July 2016
Saturday 16 July 2016
Brexit Part 3
From the day of Brexit till now, 23 days or more than 3 weeks, we saw an interesting markets behaviour. On the day of Brexit, we saw global market tumbled by 7%, 9%........... But the week after Brexit, market just turned around and this weeks we saw the US market, DOW and S&P broke history high. Lots of other major markets, as well, broke their first and second major resistant.
Those who follow my posts, I believe you know why and what was happening. The week after Brexit, as I mentioned on my 26-June posted, government funds will come in to support the equities market. If we look at the volume on that week, it tells us that the showed was purely from central banks.
The following weeks, on 3-July, I mentioned that prepare for retracement / pull back and it is about time for the professional to perform. We saw the retracement and we saw what the professionals did. They surfed with the wave. Retracement was just for them to enter at a much better pricing. The day of retracement, we saw articles everywhere saying that here it comes, the impact of Brexit....... So if you sold your stock at that moment, now you know who you sold it to?
Which markets were the biggest winner on the ride of this U-turned? Taiwan, UK and of course the US. Before the result of Brexit, 80% of the people were not expecting Brexit to exit. They were all wrong. The moment that the result of Bexit was out, the so called experts expected the markets to go wild, calling everyone to sell. They were wrong too. Today, what I saw over the past few days, I started to see many so called experts started asking people to buy, do not worry, the bull is ........ Retail traders / investors are really lost. What the hell is going on? In a while, market tumbled, the next moment market just turned around and hit months / record high. This don't happen only on Brexit but it has been happening over the past 2 to 3 years. What is going on?
Today market is meant for trade. We should not dance with all those stupid news and numbers. Those news and numbers are only for mend for analysts to tell everyone oh today market up because of....., tomorrow market down because of ......
Brexit really bad for the UK? May not. Give you an example - FTA. It will be much easier for the UK to negotiate with countries like the India and Australia on the FTA as compare when they were in the Euro. The fate of UK, very much depends on the new government. How they perform. How they work with each other in the parliament, their people/residents and with other countries. Nevertheless, if they underperform, big different opinion, political game going around.......... then it will be a nightmare. So it is too early to say how the UK future going to be.
The worry is in fact on the Euro. Will other Euro member follow what the UK did - Brexit? Since there were uncertainly and not knowing of the outcome, then why Brexit bring the market to new height? As I mentioned earlier, first the support from the central banks. Next, you ask yourself, if you were a professional surfer, you are in the sea and you see the wave coming, what will you do? Will you get up and surf with your surfboard?
Let's us go to the US. Raising of interest rate has been the talking point over the year. Initially, Fed said that they will raise the interest rate base on unemployment rate........then they said they are worried about the slow economic from China.........and then the Brexit.......... Seem like a no ending story/excuses. As I said Janet Yellen is not stupid. She knows the consequence of raising interest rate when everyone is printing money.
US election year - final one in November. President Obama belongs to Republican or Democratic? Hillary Clinton belongs to Republican or Democratic? So what about Janet Yellen? So while you are guessing about when the US is going to raise their interest rate, take this into consideration.
Dispute on South China Sea. Former president of Philippines, Benigno Aquino III, a keen supporter for the return of the US back to Asia. Thinking that Philippines could tap on the US to seize control of the disputed territory and exclusive rights to the highly valuable economic zone, he brought the case to Permanent Court of Arbitration in Hague. Nevertheless, in the very beginning China has mentioned that neither they agree nor accept the verdict.
China is very clear, they highlighted so many things like welcome dialogues with its neighbour countries over the disputed of South China Sea. However, US keeps sending naval ship to that area. Is it part of the US strategy to ease tension and weave a precarious path between provoking China and ensure Beijing abides by international norms or the US also has interest in the region, not only because of its complex relationship with China, but also because the waters represent a key trade routes ............or......... ? You judge yourself.
Before Rodridgo Duterte could sit down as Philippine’s 16th President on July 1, there was already a war of words going on between the United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and Duterte’s camp. Will Philippine new president Rodrigo Duterte work with the US like what the former president Benigno Aquino III did? We shall wait and see.
When we look at the economic of US, ask yourself if it is really that good? If no then why do US markets keep breaking new high. You should have known the reason by now. And look at other regions, how their economic progress over the past few years? There were lots of uncertainly yet we kept seeing this - whenever you feel/think that the market 完蛋了, the hope and greed return? One after another, the market survive.
Yes, the answer is knowing and respecting the big brother. Today market, no longer so much about fundamental. You won't know how is UK going to be in 6 months from now, 9 months from now,........... You won't know who is going to be the next US president? You won't know............ What we are seeing right now, they are all artificial. They were all because of all those stimulus, printing tons of money. Flowing everywhere.
People are now expecting more stimulus to come. From the UK, Japan Australia...... It is very sad and shameful to say that nowadays whenever there is an economic uncertainly, central bank will start to print more money. This QE is like the drug of 伟哥. You feel great, high, fantastic after taking it. You love it and you continue taking this drug. You can't perform without this medicine. One day, you find that this 伟哥 doesn't seem so powerful anymore. So instead of taking one tablet, this time you consume 2 tablets and next time you consume......... Sadly one day, you will reach to a point that this medicine is no longer effective to you anymore.
My advise to all retail traders and investors out there - know what you are doing. You trade what you see. Do not listen to others. Don't dance with news, articles, analysts advice......... do not invest/trade blindly. Do know when you surf and when you should put on your parachute.
Lastly, let's look at 2 charts:-
Taiwan Future - you see a long red bar on June that penetrated through 307. That is the day that Brexit took place. Between 308 to 310, that was where the funds started to come in. It supported the markets way up to 323 and then you can see a retracement took place. Above 312.6, that was where the profesional got in and pushed the market to break the first major resistant as well the second resistant. So for the mean time, whenever there is a retest or pull back, these two 307 and 312.6 have become the big psychology support for the Taiwan Future market.
Those who follow my posts, I believe you know why and what was happening. The week after Brexit, as I mentioned on my 26-June posted, government funds will come in to support the equities market. If we look at the volume on that week, it tells us that the showed was purely from central banks.
The following weeks, on 3-July, I mentioned that prepare for retracement / pull back and it is about time for the professional to perform. We saw the retracement and we saw what the professionals did. They surfed with the wave. Retracement was just for them to enter at a much better pricing. The day of retracement, we saw articles everywhere saying that here it comes, the impact of Brexit....... So if you sold your stock at that moment, now you know who you sold it to?
Which markets were the biggest winner on the ride of this U-turned? Taiwan, UK and of course the US. Before the result of Brexit, 80% of the people were not expecting Brexit to exit. They were all wrong. The moment that the result of Bexit was out, the so called experts expected the markets to go wild, calling everyone to sell. They were wrong too. Today, what I saw over the past few days, I started to see many so called experts started asking people to buy, do not worry, the bull is ........ Retail traders / investors are really lost. What the hell is going on? In a while, market tumbled, the next moment market just turned around and hit months / record high. This don't happen only on Brexit but it has been happening over the past 2 to 3 years. What is going on?
Today market is meant for trade. We should not dance with all those stupid news and numbers. Those news and numbers are only for mend for analysts to tell everyone oh today market up because of....., tomorrow market down because of ......
Brexit really bad for the UK? May not. Give you an example - FTA. It will be much easier for the UK to negotiate with countries like the India and Australia on the FTA as compare when they were in the Euro. The fate of UK, very much depends on the new government. How they perform. How they work with each other in the parliament, their people/residents and with other countries. Nevertheless, if they underperform, big different opinion, political game going around.......... then it will be a nightmare. So it is too early to say how the UK future going to be.
The worry is in fact on the Euro. Will other Euro member follow what the UK did - Brexit? Since there were uncertainly and not knowing of the outcome, then why Brexit bring the market to new height? As I mentioned earlier, first the support from the central banks. Next, you ask yourself, if you were a professional surfer, you are in the sea and you see the wave coming, what will you do? Will you get up and surf with your surfboard?
Let's us go to the US. Raising of interest rate has been the talking point over the year. Initially, Fed said that they will raise the interest rate base on unemployment rate........then they said they are worried about the slow economic from China.........and then the Brexit.......... Seem like a no ending story/excuses. As I said Janet Yellen is not stupid. She knows the consequence of raising interest rate when everyone is printing money.
US election year - final one in November. President Obama belongs to Republican or Democratic? Hillary Clinton belongs to Republican or Democratic? So what about Janet Yellen? So while you are guessing about when the US is going to raise their interest rate, take this into consideration.
Dispute on South China Sea. Former president of Philippines, Benigno Aquino III, a keen supporter for the return of the US back to Asia. Thinking that Philippines could tap on the US to seize control of the disputed territory and exclusive rights to the highly valuable economic zone, he brought the case to Permanent Court of Arbitration in Hague. Nevertheless, in the very beginning China has mentioned that neither they agree nor accept the verdict.
China is very clear, they highlighted so many things like welcome dialogues with its neighbour countries over the disputed of South China Sea. However, US keeps sending naval ship to that area. Is it part of the US strategy to ease tension and weave a precarious path between provoking China and ensure Beijing abides by international norms or the US also has interest in the region, not only because of its complex relationship with China, but also because the waters represent a key trade routes ............or......... ? You judge yourself.
Before Rodridgo Duterte could sit down as Philippine’s 16th President on July 1, there was already a war of words going on between the United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and Duterte’s camp. Will Philippine new president Rodrigo Duterte work with the US like what the former president Benigno Aquino III did? We shall wait and see.
When we look at the economic of US, ask yourself if it is really that good? If no then why do US markets keep breaking new high. You should have known the reason by now. And look at other regions, how their economic progress over the past few years? There were lots of uncertainly yet we kept seeing this - whenever you feel/think that the market 完蛋了, the hope and greed return? One after another, the market survive.
Yes, the answer is knowing and respecting the big brother. Today market, no longer so much about fundamental. You won't know how is UK going to be in 6 months from now, 9 months from now,........... You won't know who is going to be the next US president? You won't know............ What we are seeing right now, they are all artificial. They were all because of all those stimulus, printing tons of money. Flowing everywhere.
People are now expecting more stimulus to come. From the UK, Japan Australia...... It is very sad and shameful to say that nowadays whenever there is an economic uncertainly, central bank will start to print more money. This QE is like the drug of 伟哥. You feel great, high, fantastic after taking it. You love it and you continue taking this drug. You can't perform without this medicine. One day, you find that this 伟哥 doesn't seem so powerful anymore. So instead of taking one tablet, this time you consume 2 tablets and next time you consume......... Sadly one day, you will reach to a point that this medicine is no longer effective to you anymore.
My advise to all retail traders and investors out there - know what you are doing. You trade what you see. Do not listen to others. Don't dance with news, articles, analysts advice......... do not invest/trade blindly. Do know when you surf and when you should put on your parachute.
Lastly, let's look at 2 charts:-
Taiwan Future - you see a long red bar on June that penetrated through 307. That is the day that Brexit took place. Between 308 to 310, that was where the funds started to come in. It supported the markets way up to 323 and then you can see a retracement took place. Above 312.6, that was where the profesional got in and pushed the market to break the first major resistant as well the second resistant. So for the mean time, whenever there is a retest or pull back, these two 307 and 312.6 have become the big psychology support for the Taiwan Future market.
You may use this approach to analyse the market that you trading, whether DOW, FTSE, .............
Second chart, we look at DOW. We look at Y1998 to Y2000. Before Dotcom bubbled burst in somewhere end of Y2000. One of half year before the crisis take place, market behaved like a 打不死的小强。That's what I mean by "do know when you surf and when you should put on your parachute". Having the parachute on, you need to know when you should jump. 90% of the retail investor/traders do not know this.
Saturday 9 July 2016
One good trade - when tthere is good set up with reasonable P&L, you enter
One good trade doesn't mean every trade is a winning trade.
One good trade - when there is good set up with reasonable P&L, you enter.
If you see opportunity soon after one good trade, immediately re-enter again.
Remember I mentioned those three in my 30-June posted? (http://achua138.blogspot.sg/2016/06/one-good-trade.html)
Once again, wheat has a hammers and triggered on Thursday.
Corn has an inverted hammer on Thursday. Some people will enter the trade the next day when it trigger. Some people will wait for next day confirmation candle plus the follow day trigger. So depend on individual.
One good trade - when there is good set up with reasonable P&L, you enter.
If you see opportunity soon after one good trade, immediately re-enter again.
Remember I mentioned those three in my 30-June posted? (http://achua138.blogspot.sg/2016/06/one-good-trade.html)
Once again, wheat has a hammers and triggered on Thursday.
Corn has an inverted hammer on Thursday. Some people will enter the trade the next day when it trigger. Some people will wait for next day confirmation candle plus the follow day trigger. So depend on individual.
Monday 4 July 2016
Sunday 3 July 2016
Experts and anlysts called for bull?
Once again, we saw how the big boys U-turn the market. So this time round, who was this big boy? If you do not who were they, refer to my 26-June posted, read the last paragraph.
(http://achua138.blogspot.sg/2016/06/brexit-panic-wiped-2-trillions-off.html)
Just look at the past few years, how and when fund came in to the markets. How markets had been supported. So this time, once again we witness "whenever you feel/think that the market 完蛋了, the hope and greed return".
And once again, you experience this thing called "trade what you see and not what you think". Plus another important lesson - do not listen to others. During the day of Brexit, at about 3pm after Europe market I received 2 messages from 2 of the well known remisers (they called themselves as trader and retailors called them as experts) warning me/his clients " to reduce our on hand stocks" and "Brexit, STI could tumble to...." respectively.
For those who has been supporting my blog, reading my posts, hopefully with so many rounds of up and down, you and me, learned the above 4 points that I kept highlighting - big boys movement, how hope and greed return, trade what you see and do not listen to others.
The country that people think going to have lots of problems has the strongest rebound. UK100, not only rebounded but also broke the 6400 resistant. The rest of the markets either at the resistant level or close to their resistant point when Friday closed.
Past 5 days, the volume was rather thin. Politician has made the first moved. Now is about time for the professional traders to make their move. These people will definitely want to make back what they have loss. I know a lot of the experts/analysts have changed their perspective in looking at the Brexit from bear to bull. I received and saw numerous of called from these people starting late last Thursday, is time to buy, there are still room for STI,.........
They may be right. I don't know. Remember what we learned. Trade what......and don't............ Next time when you received such called from these experts, ask them these questions - where is my stop loss, what is my P&L ratio?
Trade what you see. Do not listen to others. Do my own homework. Markets has gone up straight 4 to 5 days. For a positive market, at most it go up another few more days and it should follow with a sound retracement / pull back. On the other hand, if it shoot up like no body business, you better be worry. Anyway, is about time for the professional big boys to perform.
(http://achua138.blogspot.sg/2016/06/brexit-panic-wiped-2-trillions-off.html)
Just look at the past few years, how and when fund came in to the markets. How markets had been supported. So this time, once again we witness "whenever you feel/think that the market 完蛋了, the hope and greed return".
And once again, you experience this thing called "trade what you see and not what you think". Plus another important lesson - do not listen to others. During the day of Brexit, at about 3pm after Europe market I received 2 messages from 2 of the well known remisers (they called themselves as trader and retailors called them as experts) warning me/his clients " to reduce our on hand stocks" and "Brexit, STI could tumble to...." respectively.
For those who has been supporting my blog, reading my posts, hopefully with so many rounds of up and down, you and me, learned the above 4 points that I kept highlighting - big boys movement, how hope and greed return, trade what you see and do not listen to others.
The country that people think going to have lots of problems has the strongest rebound. UK100, not only rebounded but also broke the 6400 resistant. The rest of the markets either at the resistant level or close to their resistant point when Friday closed.
They may be right. I don't know. Remember what we learned. Trade what......and don't............ Next time when you received such called from these experts, ask them these questions - where is my stop loss, what is my P&L ratio?
Trade what you see. Do not listen to others. Do my own homework. Markets has gone up straight 4 to 5 days. For a positive market, at most it go up another few more days and it should follow with a sound retracement / pull back. On the other hand, if it shoot up like no body business, you better be worry. Anyway, is about time for the professional big boys to perform.
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