Wednesday 25 June 2014
Thursday 19 June 2014
2014 Half Year Review
Eight more
days towards end of 1H2014. Those who
read my blog probably by now know why I prefer to look at 3300 as the
resistant level instead of 3280. Since
May, resistant 3300 had been tested seventh times. Each time, it broke 3300, selling pressure
came in. My stand did not change –
for STI to test last year high, it needs to break 3300 plus stand firmly above
3330.
Now, let’s
look at the big brothers and things happening around the world.
February,
DOW touched Opera house base line and rebounded. April, NADAQ touched the Opera house base
line and rebounded. Each time when correction
reached certain critical level, someone will say/do something to push the
market back up. Same goes to the other
way. Each time when DOW and S&P
reached history high, selling pressure came in.
This scenario happened not only once but countless of times.
Under Ben Bernanke, he mentioned that when jobless rate go below 6.5%, they will increase interest rate. What is the jobless rate now? Yes, 6.3%! Did US increase interest rate? No! Now, jobless rate is no longer the guideline to determine increasing of interest rate. New FED chairman Yellen knows the pro and con of raising the interest rate. Do you? Look at history. Have you ever see how interest move? Do they move like stock market? The answer is “no”. Janet Yellen knows very well the cons of raising interest rate. We look at Europe. ECB took deposit rates into negative territory. Why? Just only to boost their economic, that simple?
When and in what circumstance will US starts increasing their interest rate? US dollar depreciate, inflation goes up. Beside US dollars, inflation and interest rate, fund managers, traders and investors are watching closely on the 10 years US Treasury. Watch out when it hit 3 to 3.5%.
Shanghai Index tends to have a very good support at 1950 to 2000. It used to rebound whenever it dropped below 1950/2000. Recent IPO and China economic data have given some pressure to the China indices. Nevertheless, I don’t see a problem over these two. Like what I said, it will benefit China in the long run.
I am now eagerly watching another project that coming out between the China and Hong Kong - 沪港通Shanghai, Hong Kong Stock Connect. Under this connection, Hong Kong investors are eligible to purchase China stocks. Same goes to Shanghai investors, they are allow to invest Hong Kong stocks. This is going to benefit China and Hong Kong stocks in the long run.
Last year we have Syria. This year we have Russia and Ukraine. And now we have Iran and Iraq. How US responded? Did US send their troops to Syria? Remember what Obama did? Russia and Ukraine? What action has been taken so far? Iran and Iraq. US which invaded Iraq in 2003 to topple President Saddam Hussein and withdrew its troop in 2011. You see the difference in the way of handling international issue by current President Mr Barack Obama?
Russia - Putin, a guy with colourful profile – 16 years as an officer in KGB, rising to the rank of Lieutenant Colonel, enter politics in 1991……..became President, Prime Minister……. Look at how he reacted when US and Europe were trying to take action on Russia. Russia is a country which has huge assets and lots of foreign currencies in their reserves.
India! I have been watching India over the past 5 years. In term of economic, India shouldn’t be lacking so far behind China. New and the 15th Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi. The Indians have high hold on this new prime minister. I am looking forward to see how he tackle corruption, inflation which is currently eight over percent, growth, safety……..external relationship………
Under Ben Bernanke, he mentioned that when jobless rate go below 6.5%, they will increase interest rate. What is the jobless rate now? Yes, 6.3%! Did US increase interest rate? No! Now, jobless rate is no longer the guideline to determine increasing of interest rate. New FED chairman Yellen knows the pro and con of raising the interest rate. Do you? Look at history. Have you ever see how interest move? Do they move like stock market? The answer is “no”. Janet Yellen knows very well the cons of raising interest rate. We look at Europe. ECB took deposit rates into negative territory. Why? Just only to boost their economic, that simple?
When and in what circumstance will US starts increasing their interest rate? US dollar depreciate, inflation goes up. Beside US dollars, inflation and interest rate, fund managers, traders and investors are watching closely on the 10 years US Treasury. Watch out when it hit 3 to 3.5%.
Shanghai Index tends to have a very good support at 1950 to 2000. It used to rebound whenever it dropped below 1950/2000. Recent IPO and China economic data have given some pressure to the China indices. Nevertheless, I don’t see a problem over these two. Like what I said, it will benefit China in the long run.
I am now eagerly watching another project that coming out between the China and Hong Kong - 沪港通Shanghai, Hong Kong Stock Connect. Under this connection, Hong Kong investors are eligible to purchase China stocks. Same goes to Shanghai investors, they are allow to invest Hong Kong stocks. This is going to benefit China and Hong Kong stocks in the long run.
Last year we have Syria. This year we have Russia and Ukraine. And now we have Iran and Iraq. How US responded? Did US send their troops to Syria? Remember what Obama did? Russia and Ukraine? What action has been taken so far? Iran and Iraq. US which invaded Iraq in 2003 to topple President Saddam Hussein and withdrew its troop in 2011. You see the difference in the way of handling international issue by current President Mr Barack Obama?
Russia - Putin, a guy with colourful profile – 16 years as an officer in KGB, rising to the rank of Lieutenant Colonel, enter politics in 1991……..became President, Prime Minister……. Look at how he reacted when US and Europe were trying to take action on Russia. Russia is a country which has huge assets and lots of foreign currencies in their reserves.
India! I have been watching India over the past 5 years. In term of economic, India shouldn’t be lacking so far behind China. New and the 15th Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi. The Indians have high hold on this new prime minister. I am looking forward to see how he tackle corruption, inflation which is currently eight over percent, growth, safety……..external relationship………
Monday 9 June 2014
Will this happen to this year World Cup?
I captured this from one of the website. Will this happen to this year World Cup? I don't know. I do not want to guess neither. I just know today market is mend for trade. As I mentioned in early January, 小心 and always on guard.
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