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Sunday 13 November 2016

Seat tight and enjoy the shows, a new chapter has begin

Eighty to Ninety percent of the people did not expect Bexit to exit.  Unfortunately, on 24-Jun the result surprised everyone.  Brexit went through and UK is leaving Europe.  What happened to the market on that day?  Can you remember?  UK equity market tumbled by 10%  After that what happened?  On the same day, UK index recovered almost 50% on his earlier loss.  Day after day....what happen......?  It went higher and higher and finally on 4-Oct, it gave you a recod height of 7129.
Now we look at what happen to the US election result and market outcome.  Before the day of election, analysts and experts told eveyone that if Hiltary Clinton was to win the US election, equity market will go up by XX%.  On the other hand, if Donald Trump was to win the election, market will tumble by XX%.  So what did you see on that day when everyone acknowledged Donald Trump had won the election and getting ready to go into the White House?

US Market dived down by 5%  After that, what happened?  It recovered and furthermore, it closed 1.3% higher on that day.  That is what I meant by "you should pay attention to what the big boys are doing" on my last post. 
Once again let me emphasize these:
  • Do not listen to others, no matter who is he or she. 
  • Do your own homework and do not follow the crowd/majority.  Learn to understand this - market, only 10% of the people are making money.   
  • Today market is meant for trade.
  • Trade what you see and not what you and others think.  Those analysts and experts told you if .....it will.....if.....it will......  These/those are what they think.
As a trader or investor, we need to know how the economic and market work, link, move..... and function.  What those politicans can do as well as his/her limitation.  Understand how retail/most of the investors/traders act against...... plus how the big boys move the market around.   

Equities markets have been running high over the past 7 years, the main reason was because of low interest rate.  Everyone was been taught to save up for rainy days......  But over the past few years, if you did what your parents did or been told/taught, you lose on currency depreciation and inflation against the bank interest rate.   

So Donald Trump will become the next US President.  He is against TPP......he wants to implement......he wants to reduce tax as to bring the job back to America.  Reducing of taxes and yet so many things that he wants to carry out, the money has to come from somewhere.  With the hint on the last 2 FOMC, unless something unusual happen, otherwise 80 to 90% chance, Federal chairman Janet Yellen is going to annouce the progress of interest rate hike on this coming December FOMC. 

US dollar will go up.  Money will flow back to the US.  Pressure is rising especially on emerging markets.  When US dollar goes up, lot of Future products will get affected.  Like gold, silver, oil ...... and commodities.

Will US dollar get stronger and stronger, go up like no body business.  Will countries around the world allow their currenies to depreciate against the greeb belt to.....?  What do you think?  How far can the US dollar goes? 

Singapore MAS will step in when USD/SGD reaches 1.45  Gold, oil, LME....commodities, drops are an opportunity for me to buy.  I will be looking for a buy signal whenever it reaches the support or pyschology level.   Production cost for gold mining is around $1000 to $1200.  Early 2016, oil reached a bottom of $26.  You think oil can go to $10 like what the analysts mentioned in soemwhere end of 2015? 

US market like the DOW is at all time high right now.  I will be even more happy if S&P, NADSAQ and Rusell do the same thing.  As it is an opportunity.  A new chapter has begin.  Seat tight, watch the shows and enjoy the ride. 

Wednesday 9 November 2016

You should pay attention to what the big boys are doing

What most people think it would not happen, it happened.  The world has changed.  People are sick with those politician game.  People are sick with those politicians who smile at you but then they are not sincere. People are.......... continue to struggle even thought every month the data numbers tell you how good is this how good is that. 

What people are looking for is someone who can represent their voices.  Don't believe, just look at what happened over the past few months.  What happened to Phillipine, Brexit and of course now the US. 

Analysts and experts mentioned that if Clinton will to win the US election, equity market will go up by XX%.  If Trump win, market will tumble by XX%.  Now, as what I mentioned - you don't swing with the news nor numbers.  You trade what you see and not what you think, he think or she think.  First you ask yourself "Who am I?".  Second "Which type of trading strategy suit you?" and that lead to "what kind of trader you are?"  You are a swing trader, wave trader, intraday trader or..........  Don't just listen to those so called gurus tell you. 

During Brexit you saw how the market swing.  The market swing wild, just like a roller coaster.  On that day some market even dropped more than ten percent.  But what happened next?  (http://achua138.blogspot.sg/2016/06/brexit-panic-wiped-2-trillions-off.html)  So you trade what you see.  You should pay attention to what the big boys are trying to do?  Are they really pushing the market to north or to south or are they setting trap for you to jump in?  That is more important than anything else, and not what the so called gurus and experts are telling you.  So good luck to you and me.  Trade with care and trade on what you see.  Anything can happen right now.