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Sunday 18 December 2016

Beware of big boys 拉高布空

So what did you see after the US presidential election? After Donald Trump got elected? Did equities market tumble by more than 10% as what the experts and analysts had exepected? 

It did not, wasn't it?  Infact it went the other way round.  It repeated what we saw on Brexit.  DOW, the first one to broke new high.  Then followed by Russell, S&P and last Tuesday, NASDAQ. 

Remember the things that I mentioned on my previous post?  http://achua138.blogspot.sg/2016/11/seat-tight-and-enjoy-shows-new-chapter.html  Remember I said this - "I will be even more happy if all the four major US indices broke new time high."  Why?  As I mentioned that - "as it is an oppportunity".

Brexit happened in somewhere mid June.  Markets did not tumble as what many people expected.  Days after the Brexit, big boys came in and pushed the equities markets to go higher and higher.  At that level where the big boys start to enter the market, it act as a support and psychology level for benchmarking.  During the upside, no matter how market retrace or pull back, it won't go below this level. 

But today, this level is no longer the benchmark for these group of big boys.  What I saw from the US over the past 3 days, big boys were doing the so called 拉高布空.  The big boys have what I called "enough".  In order for the equities market to go higher, we need another group of people (not you and me) to push the market higher.  If not...........

Last Friday, Europe market DAX reached its resistant level.  UK end with a shooting star.  CAC below has gap which gap is trend enemy.  Asia market like Singapore, Tawian..... bound off from their resistant level.  Taiwan has been the leader over the pas one and the half year, so watch out on them - the formation of a letter "M".

The US and Europe including UK.  We saw good numbers whether in their GDP, unemplyment rate, non-farm.......... so you and me started to believe the economic is recovery, things are in good shape?  In Sinagpore, we have low inflation.  Does that mean you are paying lesser for a plate of noodle, chicken rice...... a 10kg rice cost a dollar lesser.............  You need to learn how to see the loop hole of all these numbers.

After Brexit and US election, market did not collapse instead it went higher.  We have lots of so called property guru came out to tell everyone that it is time to invest on housing.  Certain area property launched, we still saw people going for it.  Stock retail investors/traders went in to buy dividend stocks like Reits.......  Well if this will be continue........ 

Remember this - in the market 90% of the people are losing money, only 10% are making money.  So should you follow the majority or should you think differently from that 90%?

In the nineteenty, people looked up to the UK especially the Britain.  In the twenteenty, it was the US.  Twenty-one century, things changed.  US has more enemies.  Recently we saw Donald Trump trying to play some politicial games with the China before he even step into the white house.  What do you think?  Will US wins and benefit from this game?

Today China, is no longer in 1950, 60  or 70.  China Xi Jinping knows what China wants.  He does not talk nonsence.  China is processing.  During the transforming state, you will see pain.  There will be up and down.  No country can escape from that including the early day of the UK and the US.  China whether you like it or not, they already tranformed how the economic of US dominating the conomic to the regional world over the last century.  They had overtake Japan to become the second largest economic in the global.  Countries like Greman, France....Phillipine, Malaysia..... wanted to be friends with the China.  US to go against the China....... no one is going to be the winner.  To go into trade war.  This is not going to be a joke.  Investors and traders, do trade with care.