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Monday 18 January 2016

Rebound

Last Thursday, we saw buyers commitment.  Major markets, opened with a gap down, dived further south but then closed high.  Next day, signal did not receive confirmation.  Global markets dived further to south.  US markets broke and closed at their first support level.  Now approaching its major second support.

How tire the bull is, he still have some breaths to give papa bear some punches.   Markets had gone down straight two weeks.  In some way, it need/will have a consolidation/rebound.  When?  I believe we are going to have the answer soon. 

Any done trade, there is a buyer and seller.  Both agreed with XXX pricing and the deal seal/wet through.  Now, everyone is calling to sell.  So if everyone sell then where the buyers come from? 

Before any rebound take place, big boys are going to created some fear to the retail investors.  And when they sell, the big boys will buy those tickets/contracts from them. 

This is how the game play.  So sit tight and watch the show.

Now, people start asking - rebound, that is the case can we start buying now?

It is a bear market right now.  Papa bear is pounding on the tire bull.  As I mentioned twice in my blog, any rebound is a  逃命反弹.(http://achua138.blogspot.sg/2016/01/here-comes-papa-bear.html).  Any pull back is an opportunity for you to sell if you are holding any long position.  Until now, I don't see a way that the markets has a chance to go back to its peak.   

Then another group of people ask me - they know only the usual way - buy first then sell.  So they are waiting to buy on rebound 反弹.  And of course, some of them,  do not any position right now and they are looking to make some money on the rebound. 

I have a piece advise to this group of traders/investors.  Rebound, can be a pull back or retracement.  We won't know the distance/length of any rebound.  The pull back can be 23%, 38% or 50% or 61.8%.  Shorter than 23%, it could be a retracement instead of pull back. 

Therefore before you enter a trade, make sure you know where is your cut loss.  And make sure you discipline enough to follow the rules.     

Market is always right.  Never challenge the market.  Today market is very volatile, just like the roller coaster.  Today up 2%, tomorrow down 2%.  Day, morning up 100 points, later down 100 points...............So trade what you see and not what you think.

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