As I mentioned on 4-Dec, STI definitely need a push from the oil and gas counters.....when the crowds sell, they (professional investors/traders) start to look for opportunity......http://achua138.blogspot.sg/2014/12/sti-oil.html We saw that, wasn't it.
Warren Buffett is investing in oil assets, so does it means that the oil has bottom out. Warren Buffett is an investor. He is looking at long term. Definitely, he will buy any investing product at a bargain price but not necessary at bottom out. Where else, traders are different. Just look at the recent oil price. Yes, political game but in such a short period of time it dropped more than 40%? Because of the shale gas, because of supply versus demand............. The actual drivers was the traders. They nail it down. Their strategy are sharp and fast. A five stars traders can be accurate and fast enough in capturing even on the first U-turn entry signal. That's the reason why I always emphasize this "trade what you see and not what you think" especially today market is mend for trade.
Keppel and Sembmarine, base on TA price action, is coming close to its first resistant level. So look out - whether it will pull back or a break out to form higher low, higher high. Trade what you see.
12-Oct, I said that the US and Europe markets correction could be an opportunity for China SSE to do a catch up game. There it goes. China SSE had completed its wave one bull run. It is now approaching wave 2. Two major resistant that I will be watching at - 3340 and 3500 (which is also the FIBO 161.8% and Jul'09 peak after it recovered from the Y2008 financial crisis). By the way, 29-November I mentioned that the best way to join the ride is to wait for a pull back. SSE went up so fast and pull back so sharp, again the main driver - traders. Nail it down, enough, find another location, nail it down again...... Pull it out (pull the nail up), look for another nail, pull it out again.
So far, we saw 沪港通 benifit the Shanghai market but not the Hong Kong market. So bad? In fact I am watching Hang Seng. I believe when SSE reaches the pyschology resistant level (75% to 100% up side), it will behave like what Nikkei did. http://achua138.blogspot.sg/2014/11/should-i-join-ride-now.html Let's see will the big boys move their funds to Hong Kong.
Nikkei is trying hard to break 18000. It major resistant at 18300 (Y2007 peak). Nikkei bull run started when yuan started depreciating. Nikkei had completed wave one and two. They are now trying hard to form wave three. However, I am watching very closely on this so called Abenomics. If anything miscalculate and not handling it properly, it can be a terribly timing bomb.
Our big brother, US. Whenever it reached a record high, selling pressure came in. We will continue to see this in Y2015. I have been monitoring closely on the interest rate. As I said so many times Fed chairman Janet Yellen knows the consequence of raising interest rate....... http://achua138.blogspot.sg/2014/12/sti-oil.html Recently Yellen used the word "patient". I don't see the different between "patient" and "considerable time". For sure, US will raise interest rate, is a matter of time. So when? Not only on US itself (currency, economic data......), I am also monitoring the Europe, Japan and China on how their stimulus program go. Hint from the Fed, whether is from Yellen or her team. Remember this - stock market moves ahead economic.
This is the first time that the bull run in the US market last more than 5 years. This was because of all those artificial liquidity. When things start to go into normal and interest rate starts to increase, a new chapter will begin.
We saw some major cities, their government implemented cooling measure one after the other. Those measures caused the properties price to come down. With that, certain categories buyers/seller were unhappy and certain people like the property agents struggle/suffered/more unhappy........and thereby another set of rules implemented............ Gold came down 40%. Oil, it came down 40% too. Commodity, metal .............. So ask yourself, can equity markets go strong for another 2 more years?
As I said artificial liquidity. Today situation is like you are boiling a "ba ku teh" soup. Not salty, you add salt, not spicy, you put in more pepper, not enough water, you add more water.....you just continue to add ingredient after water, water after ingredient. Although you may be boil the soup with low heat, but this boiling has been carry out day after day, week after week...........end of the day how you think the "ba ku" going to look like and how the soup going to taste like?
I foresee that Y2015 is going to be volatile. It is about time to test the traders skills. Sit tight and prepare for the roller coaster ride. Watch out all those things that I mentioned above. On top of that, when you see all the major indices in line and retail investors/traders start to come in, bull look convincing charging, this is where you should be even more highly alert. At the time, I hope I am alert and smart enough to put on my parachute before the big boys just out/off from the airplanes. Beside these two, for TA, I will be very careful when the Opera house third fame roof starts to form. So sit tight and enjoy the ride. And remember trade what you see and not what you think and not what others tell you.
Warren Buffett is investing in oil assets, so does it means that the oil has bottom out. Warren Buffett is an investor. He is looking at long term. Definitely, he will buy any investing product at a bargain price but not necessary at bottom out. Where else, traders are different. Just look at the recent oil price. Yes, political game but in such a short period of time it dropped more than 40%? Because of the shale gas, because of supply versus demand............. The actual drivers was the traders. They nail it down. Their strategy are sharp and fast. A five stars traders can be accurate and fast enough in capturing even on the first U-turn entry signal. That's the reason why I always emphasize this "trade what you see and not what you think" especially today market is mend for trade.
Keppel and Sembmarine, base on TA price action, is coming close to its first resistant level. So look out - whether it will pull back or a break out to form higher low, higher high. Trade what you see.
12-Oct, I said that the US and Europe markets correction could be an opportunity for China SSE to do a catch up game. There it goes. China SSE had completed its wave one bull run. It is now approaching wave 2. Two major resistant that I will be watching at - 3340 and 3500 (which is also the FIBO 161.8% and Jul'09 peak after it recovered from the Y2008 financial crisis). By the way, 29-November I mentioned that the best way to join the ride is to wait for a pull back. SSE went up so fast and pull back so sharp, again the main driver - traders. Nail it down, enough, find another location, nail it down again...... Pull it out (pull the nail up), look for another nail, pull it out again.
So far, we saw 沪港通 benifit the Shanghai market but not the Hong Kong market. So bad? In fact I am watching Hang Seng. I believe when SSE reaches the pyschology resistant level (75% to 100% up side), it will behave like what Nikkei did. http://achua138.blogspot.sg/2014/11/should-i-join-ride-now.html Let's see will the big boys move their funds to Hong Kong.
Nikkei is trying hard to break 18000. It major resistant at 18300 (Y2007 peak). Nikkei bull run started when yuan started depreciating. Nikkei had completed wave one and two. They are now trying hard to form wave three. However, I am watching very closely on this so called Abenomics. If anything miscalculate and not handling it properly, it can be a terribly timing bomb.
Our big brother, US. Whenever it reached a record high, selling pressure came in. We will continue to see this in Y2015. I have been monitoring closely on the interest rate. As I said so many times Fed chairman Janet Yellen knows the consequence of raising interest rate....... http://achua138.blogspot.sg/2014/12/sti-oil.html Recently Yellen used the word "patient". I don't see the different between "patient" and "considerable time". For sure, US will raise interest rate, is a matter of time. So when? Not only on US itself (currency, economic data......), I am also monitoring the Europe, Japan and China on how their stimulus program go. Hint from the Fed, whether is from Yellen or her team. Remember this - stock market moves ahead economic.
This is the first time that the bull run in the US market last more than 5 years. This was because of all those artificial liquidity. When things start to go into normal and interest rate starts to increase, a new chapter will begin.
We saw some major cities, their government implemented cooling measure one after the other. Those measures caused the properties price to come down. With that, certain categories buyers/seller were unhappy and certain people like the property agents struggle/suffered/more unhappy........and thereby another set of rules implemented............ Gold came down 40%. Oil, it came down 40% too. Commodity, metal .............. So ask yourself, can equity markets go strong for another 2 more years?
As I said artificial liquidity. Today situation is like you are boiling a "ba ku teh" soup. Not salty, you add salt, not spicy, you put in more pepper, not enough water, you add more water.....you just continue to add ingredient after water, water after ingredient. Although you may be boil the soup with low heat, but this boiling has been carry out day after day, week after week...........end of the day how you think the "ba ku" going to look like and how the soup going to taste like?
I foresee that Y2015 is going to be volatile. It is about time to test the traders skills. Sit tight and prepare for the roller coaster ride. Watch out all those things that I mentioned above. On top of that, when you see all the major indices in line and retail investors/traders start to come in, bull look convincing charging, this is where you should be even more highly alert. At the time, I hope I am alert and smart enough to put on my parachute before the big boys just out/off from the airplanes. Beside these two, for TA, I will be very careful when the Opera house third fame roof starts to form. So sit tight and enjoy the ride. And remember trade what you see and not what you think and not what others tell you.
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