Beware of big boys 拉高布空

So what did you see after the US presidential election? After Donald Trump got elected? Did equities market tumble by more than 10% as what the experts and analysts had exepected? 

It did not, wasn't it?  Infact it went the other way round.  It repeated what we saw on Brexit.  DOW, the first one to broke new high.  Then followed by Russell, S&P and last Tuesday, NASDAQ. 

Remember the things that I mentioned on my previous post?  http://achua138.blogspot.sg/2016/11/seat-tight-and-enjoy-shows-new-chapter.html  Remember I said this - "I will be even more happy if all the four major US indices broke new time high."  Why?  As I mentioned that - "as it is an oppportunity".

Brexit happened in somewhere mid June.  Markets did not tumble as what many people expected.  Days after the Brexit, big boys came in and pushed the equities markets to go higher and higher.  At that level where the big boys start to enter the market, it act as a support and psychology level for benchmarking.  During the upside, no matter how market retrace or pull back, it won't go below this level. 

But today, this level is no longer the benchmark for these group of big boys.  What I saw from the US over the past 3 days, big boys were doing the so called 拉高布空.  The big boys have what I called "enough".  In order for the equities market to go higher, we need another group of people (not you and me) to push the market higher.  If not...........

Last Friday, Europe market DAX reached its resistant level.  UK end with a shooting star.  CAC below has gap which gap is trend enemy.  Asia market like Singapore, Tawian..... bound off from their resistant level.  Taiwan has been the leader over the pas one and the half year, so watch out on them - the formation of a letter "M".

The US and Europe including UK.  We saw good numbers whether in their GDP, unemplyment rate, non-farm.......... so you and me started to believe the economic is recovery, things are in good shape?  In Sinagpore, we have low inflation.  Does that mean you are paying lesser for a plate of noodle, chicken rice...... a 10kg rice cost a dollar lesser.............  You need to learn how to see the loop hole of all these numbers.

After Brexit and US election, market did not collapse instead it went higher.  We have lots of so called property guru came out to tell everyone that it is time to invest on housing.  Certain area property launched, we still saw people going for it.  Stock retail investors/traders went in to buy dividend stocks like Reits.......  Well if this will be continue........ 

Remember this - in the market 90% of the people are losing money, only 10% are making money.  So should you follow the majority or should you think differently from that 90%?

In the nineteenty, people looked up to the UK especially the Britain.  In the twenteenty, it was the US.  Twenty-one century, things changed.  US has more enemies.  Recently we saw Donald Trump trying to play some politicial games with the China before he even step into the white house.  What do you think?  Will US wins and benefit from this game?

Today China, is no longer in 1950, 60  or 70.  China Xi Jinping knows what China wants.  He does not talk nonsence.  China is processing.  During the transforming state, you will see pain.  There will be up and down.  No country can escape from that including the early day of the UK and the US.  China whether you like it or not, they already tranformed how the economic of US dominating the conomic to the regional world over the last century.  They had overtake Japan to become the second largest economic in the global.  Countries like Greman, France....Phillipine, Malaysia..... wanted to be friends with the China.  US to go against the China....... no one is going to be the winner.  To go into trade war.  This is not going to be a joke.  Investors and traders, do trade with care. 

Seat tight and enjoy the shows, a new chapter has begin

Eighty to Ninety percent of the people did not expect Bexit to exit.  Unfortunately, on 24-Jun the result surprised everyone.  Brexit went through and UK is leaving Europe.  What happened to the market on that day?  Can you remember?  UK equity market tumbled by 10%  After that what happened?  On the same day, UK index recovered almost 50% on his earlier loss.  Day after day....what happen......?  It went higher and higher and finally on 4-Oct, it gave you a recod height of 7129.

Now we look at what happen to the US election result and market outcome.  Before the day of election, analysts and experts told eveyone that if Hiltary Clinton was to win the US election, equity market will go up by XX%.  On the other hand, if Donald Trump was to win the election, market will tumble by XX%.  So what did you see on that day when everyone acknowledged Donald Trump had won the election and getting ready to go into the White House?

US Market dived down by 5%  After that, what happened?  It recovered and furthermore, it closed 1.3% higher on that day.  That is what I meant by "you should pay attention to what the big boys are doing" on my last post. 

Once again let me emphasize these:

• Do not listen to others, no matter who is he or she. 
• Do your own homework and do not follow the crowd/majority.  Learn to understand this - market, only 10% of the people are making money.   
• Today market is meant for trade.
• Trade what you see and not what you and others think.  Those analysts and experts told you if .....it will.....if.....it will......  These/those are what they think.

As a trader or investor, we need to know how the economic and market work, link, move..... and function.  What those politicans can do as well as his/her limitation.  Understand how retail/most of the investors/traders act against...... plus how the big boys move the market around.   

Equities markets have been running high over the past 7 years, the main reason was because of low interest rate.  Everyone was been taught to save up for rainy days......  But over the past few years, if you did what your parents did or been told/taught, you lose on currency depreciation and inflation against the bank interest rate.   

So Donald Trump will become the next US President.  He is against TPP......he wants to implement......he wants to reduce tax as to bring the job back to America.  Reducing of taxes and yet so many things that he wants to carry out, the money has to come from somewhere.  With the hint on the last 2 FOMC, unless something unusual happen, otherwise 80 to 90% chance, Federal chairman Janet Yellen is going to annouce the progress of interest rate hike on this coming December FOMC. 

US dollar will go up.  Money will flow back to the US.  Pressure is rising especially on emerging markets.  When US dollar goes up, lot of Future products will get affected.  Like gold, silver, oil ...... and commodities.

Will US dollar get stronger and stronger, go up like no body business.  Will countries around the world allow their currenies to depreciate against the greeb belt to.....?  What do you think?  How far can the US dollar goes? 

Singapore MAS will step in when USD/SGD reaches 1.45  Gold, oil, LME....commodities, drops are an opportunity for me to buy.  I will be looking for a buy signal whenever it reaches the support or pyschology level.   Production cost for gold mining is around $1000 to $1200.  Early 2016, oil reached a bottom of $26.  You think oil can go to $10 like what the analysts mentioned in soemwhere end of 2015? 

US market like the DOW is at all time high right now.  I will be even more happy if S&P, NADSAQ and Rusell do the same thing.  As it is an opportunity.  A new chapter has begin.  Seat tight, watch the shows and enjoy the ride. 

You should pay attention to what the big boys are doing

What most people think it would not happen, it happened.  The world has changed.  People are sick with those politician game.  People are sick with those politicians who smile at you but then they are not sincere. People are.......... continue to struggle even thought every month the data numbers tell you how good is this how good is that. 

What people are looking for is someone who can represent their voices.  Don't believe, just look at what happened over the past few months.  What happened to Phillipine, Brexit and of course now the US. 

Analysts and experts mentioned that if Clinton will to win the US election, equity market will go up by XX%.  If Trump win, market will tumble by XX%.  Now, as what I mentioned - you don't swing with the news nor numbers.  You trade what you see and not what you think, he think or she think.  First you ask yourself "Who am I?".  Second "Which type of trading strategy suit you?" and that lead to "what kind of trader you are?"  You are a swing trader, wave trader, intraday trader or..........  Don't just listen to those so called gurus tell you. 

During Brexit you saw how the market swing.  The market swing wild, just like a roller coaster.  On that day some market even dropped more than ten percent.  But what happened next?  (http://achua138.blogspot.sg/2016/06/brexit-panic-wiped-2-trillions-off.html)  So you trade what you see.  You should pay attention to what the big boys are trying to do?  Are they really pushing the market to north or to south or are they setting trap for you to jump in?  That is more important than anything else, and not what the so called gurus and experts are telling you.  So good luck to you and me.  Trade with care and trade on what you see.  Anything can happen right now. 

Corn is testing the double supports after a nice higher high higher low

Hang Seng has a shooting star

Lat Thursday, Hang Seng broke up and closed above resistant.  Next day (Friday), it continued the upside.  Unfortunately, things turned around an hour before market closed.  It end with a shooting star.  Look at the parallel line that I drew.  It turned around immediately after touching the top parallel line.  Refer to the second charting, Hang Seng Future with T+1.  A much obvious shooting star shown. 

Last posted I mentioned about Taiwan and Singapore.  3 scenarios that may happen - retest, fault break up and a steep upside. ( http://achua138.blogspot.sg/2016/09/singapore-and-taiwan-have-strongest.html).  So, what did you see?  It fall under which scenario?  Allow me show you one of the charting - Taiwan Future.  You got the answer by now?  If no, not a problem, I drew 2 more lines (in black) for you.  One at the top right and the other one at the MACD.  Top right a incline black line and the one at the MACD, a decline black line.  So, what does that mean/show?   

Singapore and Taiwan have the strongest pull back plus rebound

As my previous posted, past two weeks we have the option expiry, Jackson Hole and future expiry.  And we saw markets underwent on either a retracement or pulled back.  After that, it rebounded.  The strongest pulled back plus rebound came from Singapore and Taiwan. 

Let's look at the Singapore future SIMSCI.  It pulled back for 6 days, touches the support and rebounded.  Not only it rebound but it also broke the resistant.

Now the Taiwan.  It formed a head and shoulder during that 2 weeks.  Investors and traders were waiting for the break down.  Unfortunately, it did not happen.  Instead it turned around immediately after it touches the neckline with a runaway gap.  Today, it has a broke up. 

The more you and your experts hoping to see, the more the market goes against your direction.  As I mentioned, during this period, markets are highly manipulated.  Don't listen others.  Do your own homework.  Whether you buy/long or sell/short, make sure you know what you are doing.     

SIMSCI and Taiwan future, the upside looked strong.  Unfortunately, I will be watching on how they perform over the next few days.  It may do a retest before continuing the upside.  It may fall back to the rectangular box cluster, it means it was a fault break out, ........... if the upside will to be too steep, remember these words - how it go up how it will come down.  So trade what you see and not what you think.  Good luck to you and me.   

    

Equities market encounters pressure test

Market like the US broke history high.  Europe and Asia markets kept attacking the high side.  Whatever it is, each ever market they are, majority are now at the resistant level.  Coincidently, it hit this level inside the week of option expiry. 

Next week Jackson Hole meeting then follow by future expiry.  Expect volatility.  A retracement or pull back may take place.  Big boys may use this level/opportunity to cover their long position.  How many long positions they have?  What type of settlement they prefer?  I do not know.  We just have to watch and monitor.  Whether you trade on this retracement/pullback, to buy or to sell, you trade what you see and you make sure you know what you are doing.