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Showing posts with label Strategy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Strategy. Show all posts

Monday, 15 August 2016

You need to formulate your own opinion and not rely on the so-called experts remark/call.

My broker, the experts, analysts......... have been keep telling me/everyone the bear is coming, the bear is coming..... with Brexit, we are going to see a double impact to the market.  But what we saw over the past few weeks was DOW, NADSAQ and S&P broke history high.  Europe and Asia moved up strongly.  Seem like nothing is able to stop the upside.  So the question is - the markets right now is actually bull or bear?

Those who follow my blog, I am sure you know who were the big boys who pushed this markets to go higher and higher.  Why not you tell me - the equities market right now is bull or bear? 
I don't define the current market movement neither bull nor bear.  I define the big picture as territory.  Current market movement, I define them as trend.  What do I mean by that? 

Let's look at the big picture as well as the small picture.  Let us look at what is going on with the world economic, central banks action, system, education.......history and what you should be looking out for?

It is very sad to say that today economics was taught to student more like philosophy then engineering.  Economics has become mathematical rigor and modelling.  The problem with this mathematical model is - in order to make problems tractable, we need to make assumptions.  And assumptions become axiomatic.  But then the fact is markets are not efficient, nevertheless it has been conveniently been ignored.  Mathematical models also can't include unpredictable impact of speculators either.

Not only on the education, today challenges and issues are solve with that mathematical model.  Print money and to print more money.  There is a big risk on this continuously of QE one after the other.  Market will react negatively  when the amount of QE launched did not meet the investors, analysts.....expectation.  Just like the recent one that happened in Japan.

Can anyone remember what happened to Y1993 when Roosevelt decided to print money and go off with the gold standard.  The moved depreciated the dollar and it neglected the deflation.  It didn't bring a high level of inflation.  Gold and bonds went up at the same time.........

Let's take a look at a much bigger picture.  The 5 phase cycles:-
Stage 1 - Countries are poor and they know that they are poor.
Stage 2 - Countries growth and they started to get rich quickly, but then they still think that they are poor.
Stage 3 - Countries are rich and they know well of themselves - yes, we are rich.
Stage 4 - Countries start to become poor and to poorer, but then they still think that they are rich.
Stage 5 - Countries go through deleveraging and relative decline, which they are slow to accept.

So, which stage, your country is, right now?  Countries in stage 4 are in a danger of what I called a wake up call.  Countries at this stage spending continues strong, they continues to appear rich even though their balance sheets deteriorate.  They spend a lot of money on military.   At time they spend even more because of war as to protect their global interest.  However, their infrastructure, capital goods.......become older and less efficient.  They increasingly rely on their reputations rather than their competitiveness to fund their deficits.  Their debt goes higher and higher.  Bubbles starts to form............... this lead to danger of entering into stage 5.

Now we go into the small picture.  Anyone remember any of the financial crisis whether is sub-prime, Asia crisis..........?  Let's look at the one in Y2008.  When you think the crisis starts?  The day when DOW plunged 500 points?  Fundamentally, housing prices started to decline in Y2006.  Subprime credit indexes started to go down in January 2007.  Money market liquidity dried up in August 2007.  Declining housing prices were impending storm clouds.  But then only in end Y2007, early Y2008, investors started to realize that the crisis has took place.  And between Y2006 to end Y2007, equities markets continued to take new high inside the volatility roller coaster swing.

In a bubble, who is to say how far the market can go?  Who is to say when the bubble will burst?  No one.  During the bubble period, games and numbers are highly manipulated.  You see insanity everywhere.  You don't short just because your so called experts said the wolf is here.  You don't long because your so-called said.......   

Investors and traders get all excited on news, fundamental and price movements.  But they completely misunderstand or do not understand there is a bigger picture behind.  The analogy of sailing.  The wind matter but the tide matter too.  If you do not know what the tide is, and you plan everything just base on the wind, you are going to end up crashing into the rocks.

One of the day, 伟哥 will lose it function.  Patience, wait for and recognise the right time.  You may said - but I am not the expert.  You need not have to the brilliant economist, experts.....  You just have to recognise when something matter, and you react to that.  Retail investors/traders, you really need to formulate your own opinion and not rely on the so-called experts remarks/calls. 

Monday, 7 March 2016

One of the TA tactics

Recently, numbers of mine friends, neighbours......asked me these - can I buy.....this stock, that stock at......, should I sell .........at ............   Well I trade what I see.  Whether I long or short, I have a specific reason of entering a trade.  I don't follow the crowd. I don't listen to others. 

Let me share with everyone how I catch the recent turned.  Since Taiwan had been leading the market movement over the past few months, I shall use them as an example.  And same as usual before I look the actual index, I always study their Future movement.  Therefore, the chart that I am going to show you is "Tawan Index Future".
1. The market started coming down in early November.  The downside trend was - down, consolidated, down again, then rebounded and finally third wave down all the way to point number 2.

2. A white long candle which we have not seen for months.  Market opened - a scary and panic gap down.  But end of the day market closed high with volume.  This was what I called a typical buyer commitment.  Who were the buyers?  You and me?  No way.  It was the big boys who came in. 

3. Few day later, we saw another long white candle.  And again with volume.  Buyers - you and me?  No!.  Once again the big boys.

4.  Next day, market gap up and closed high.  Unfortunately, next 3 days, market end lower.  The trick was here.  Yes, all the 3 days opened with panic gap down, but when you take a closer look at the candles,  they were all white spin top candles.  It told me that someone was supporting the market. 

5. Came back from CNY.  Taiwan closed 10 days for CNY.  Remember what happened to that 10 days.  Market opened with a panic gap down.  But end of the day what happened?  Market closed positive 3 point.  Who were buyers?  Retail?  Ask ourselves, how many of them dare to buy at that moment / on that day?

I hope my sharing benefit everyone.  Next time when you encounter the similar situation, you know what to do.

Thursday, 23 October 2014

Gaps are trend enemy

STI formed head and shoulder in somewhere mid of September.  It has a clear break out from its H&S neckline with a breakaway gap.  Subsequently it has numbers of runaway gaps.  16-Oct, it hit the H&S TP with an exhausted gap.  Two days later, it revert and have a reversal breakaway gap.

Gaps are trend enemy.  Gaps have the similar problem with "open high close low".  In the market out there, there are numbers of professional traders who love especially this kind of gaps (refer to chart).  They are specialize in playing gap and I called them "Gap Specialist".  They will find ways and tactics to fill those gaps.  Hope that the specialists do not create another set of gaps while they are patching those upper side gaps. 

Wednesday, 21 May 2014

30 Life Lessons To Take From Mark Zuckerberg On His 30th Birthday

At just 30 years old, Mark Zuckerberg worth more than $24.5 billion, making him the youngest billionaire in the world. But all of his success didn’t come without hard work, dedication and a ton of mistakes. To celebrate Zuck’s 30th, here are 30 lessons you can learn from Facebook’s founder:-
1. Passion over everything
Zuckerberg is famous for saying, “Find that thing you are super passionate about. A lot of founding principles of Facebook are that if people have access to more information and are more connected, it will make the world better; people will have more understanding, more empathy. 
That’s the guiding principle for me. On hard days, I really just step back, and that’s the thing that keeps me going.” "

2. Do the most important thing you could be doing
Zuckerberg constantly worries about whether he’s doing the most important thing he could be doing. He says, “the question I ask myself like almost every day is, ‘Am I doing the most important thing I could be doing?’… Unless I feel like I’m working on the most important problem that I can help with, then I’m not going to feel good about how I’m spending my time.”

3. Remember, success doesn’t come first
Before Zuckerberg left Harvard, he created “Facesmash,” a site that judged how attractive students were based on their dorm directory photos. It didn’t really go over well with the students and faculty, but catalyzed Zuck’s drive to try something new with Facebook.

4. Never accept the first offer
Before Zuckerberg took Facebook public in 2012, he had many, many opportunities to sell the company. He stuck to his guns and believed in what he was doing. This dedication propelled him into the successful businessman he is today.

5. Be prepared to take criticism
Facebook hasn’t been free from setbacks. There have been countless lawsuits, bans in certain countries and other negative feedback that would have scared off even the shrewdest of CEOs. Not Zuckerberg. 
Through determination and thick skin, Zuckerberg and his team have remained strong in the face of adversity, mindful of the hazards and hopeful in their ability to maneuver around any challenge that comes their way.

6. Set personal challenges for yourself
Each year Zuck sets a personal challenge for himself. In 2010, he learned Mandarin Chinese so he could communicate with his then-girlfriend’s family. In 2011, he pledged only to eat animals that he slaughtered himself. This year, he’s pledged to write a thank you note every day.

7. If you aren’t breaking things, you aren’t moving fast enough
Before Facebook “grew up,” the company’s motto was, “Move fast and break things.” Zuck says, “We place a really big premium on moving quickly. One of the big theories that I had about that, was that all technology companies, and probably all companies, just slow down dramatically as they grow.
But if we can focus at every step along the way on moving quicker … then we’ll move as quickly as a company that only has 500 people, because we’ve invested so much in building up the infrastructure and tools and also the culture that tells people to take risks and try things out.

8. Let people underestimate you
 Zuckerberg said, “This is a perverse thing, personally, but I would rather be in the cycle where people are underestimating us. It gives us latitude to go out and make big bets that excite and amaze people.”

9. Stay humble
Despite being the youngest billionaire, Zuck didn’t just run out and buy fancy things. Instead, he focused on growing his company. Up until very recently, Zuck drove a relatively inexpensive Acura and didn’t splurge on a multi-million dollar home, he opted for a place close to Facebook’s campus.

10. Partner with people that complement your skills
Back when Zuck used to personally hire people at Facebook, he said, “We look for people who are passionate about something. In a way, it almost doesn’t matter what you’re passionate about. What we really look for when we’re interviewing people is what they’ve shown an initiative to do on their own.”

11. Give back
In 2013, Zuckerberg was the top philanthropist of the year, donating $990 million to charity.

12. Dream big
 If you don’t dream big, you’ll never achieve your goals.

13. Be exclusive
Exclusivity is a good thing. When Facebook first launched in 2004, it was only available to students at ivy league schools. This caused students at other colleges from all over the country to want to become part of this exclusive club.
By keeping the site exclusive, Zuck made sure that supply was never larger than demand and that Facebook remained a highly sought after prize.

14. Don’t be intimidated by competition
Back when Facebook first launched, it had a ton of competition. All of the competitors were in a better position than Facebook, Myspace had five million users and Friendster has just raised $13 million. Instead of giving up, Zuck continued to work hard and improve his platform. In the end, look who came out on top.

15. Think long term
“Zuckerberg understands the power of passion and the right attitude. Sometimes Facebook hires people just to have the right talent on board, and later on matches up their passions to the projects that they are best suited to work on,” says Ekaterina Walter, author of “Think Like Zuck.”

16. Don’t give up
During Facebook’s first summer, before investors, Zuckerberg needed money to keep going. His parents encouraged him to not give up and pitched in $85,000 to keep the startup afloat.

17. Make mistakes
Zuckerberg said, “So many businesses get worried about looking like they might make a mistake, they become afraid to take any risk.
Companies are set up so that people judge each other on failure. I am not going to get fired if we have a bad year. Or a bad five years. I don’t have to worry about making things look good if they’re not. I can actually set up the company to create value.”

18. Take risks
Typically, when you first start a company, you’ll meet and talk with anyone who will listen. Zuckerberg did the opposite when he was first raising money for Facebook. He shunned major investors, ignored phone calls and canceled meetings, just to drive up demand.
Eventually, he had 12 large investment companies, all fighting to fund his site. While most people would have been too scared of missing out on an opportunity, Zuckerberg and the rest of the Facebook team believed in their product enough to wait it out.

19. Hire people you would work for yourself
Zuckerberg has learned a lot about picking good people to work for him. He says, “overtime what I figured out was that the only actual way to let someone analyze whether someone was really good was if they would work for that person …”

20. Money isn’t everything
Before Facebook began making money, Zuckerberg said, “Simply put, we don’t build services to make money; we make money to build better services.”

21. Build a good team
Zuckerberg on teamwork: “One definition that I have for a good team is a group of people that makes better decisions as a whole than would individually make as a sum of the parts.” Zuckerberg adds that “when building a team you want to think about the dynamics so that way you can maintain this property that the team makes better decisions as a group than any individual would.”

22. Lockdown when you think the competition is getting ahead of you.
In Facebook’s earlier years Zuckerberg said, “whenever any other company gets ahead of us on something that we think is strategic to us … we literally did not leave the house until we had addressed the problem, now it’s a little looser of an interpretation … we don’t literally lock everyone inside the office, but about as close to that as we can legally get.
It’s like ‘alright there’s some competitor that has something that we feel like we really need we’re going into lockdown to get this thing because we’re not going to let (a competitor or disrupter) get ahead of us."

23. You’re not as good or as bad as people say
Keep in mind that you’re not as good as people say, and you’re not as bad as people say. Zuckerberg has said in the past that if Facebook is hitting a rough patch with the media and outsiders, he’ll remind the member of his team that they’re not as bad as the press says they is.
When Facebook is being praised, he’ll remind his team members that they’re not as good as people say they are. Find the equilibrium.

24. Don’t get talked out of anything you strongly believe in
Remember when Facebook Newsfeed first launched? Everyone hated it. The backlash upset many Facebook users. Instead of caving and returning things to the way they were, Zuckerberg stood his ground. Today, Newsfeed is one of the most important Facebook features.

25. Stay on top of your industry
Zuckerberg pays close attention to what’s going on in the tech industry. He’s constantly researching and always has his eye out for ways to make Facebook better.
Instead of always making products in-house, sometimes he has to buy companies. That’s what happened when he got Instagram for $1 billion and WhatsApp for $19 billion.

26. Treat the people working for you well
Zuck understands that if people aren’t happy, they won’t want to work hard. At Facebook HQ, employees get a lot of perks. From free food, to free computer accessories and even an on-site barber shop, Facebook is packed with goodies that make employees never want to leave.

27. Stand up to pressure, both internal and external
Zuck has a rare entrepreneurial skill that allows him to have an amazing vision. His courage to stand up to the pressures, both internal and external, helps keep him on course and never steers him away from his goals.

28. Don’t rest even when you’re ahead
“Creating the culture of urgency, staying in the state of permanent beta, not resting on [and] its laurels. That is something a lot of leaders are struggling with, especially once they reach some level of success. The hacker culture that Zuck created is the key to its continuous innovation and fluid adaptability,” says Ekaterina Walter, author of “Think Like Zuck.”

29. Be fearless
Zuckerberg’s youth allows him to promote an environment of fearlessness. This empowers Facebook employees to innovate and execute on their ideas. It also fosters passion, curiosity and creativity. Both believing in the impossible and not dismissing ideas have greatly contributed to Facebook’s success.

30. Finishing is more important that perfection
Zuckerberg famously said, “Done is better than perfect.” A great CEO acknowledges that no one is perfect, but finishing something is paramount. If you finish something, you can always go back and improve on it, but doing your best is what counts.

Wednesday, 26 February 2014

I do not like the idea of "Open High Close Low"

I do not like the idea of open high close low.  STI continuously four days with an opened high closed low.  Refer to the four arrows that I drew on the chart.  Although we see a rebound after it reached 2954 but the continue four days opened high and closed low has given STI a smooth rebound come to an end.  The pressure is there provided we start to see open low close high.  Otherwise, even it will to test 2013YEC3167, the road is going to be bumpy.  By then going forward, look out for US and China market movement which will affect the STI.  Look at the circle that I drew on the chart.  It also showed an opened high closed low.

Tuesday, 25 February 2014

Billionaire Jack Ma teaches you how to be successful in life and business

About Jack Ma: 
Billionaire Jack Ma, the founder and ex-CEO of Alibaba Group, as well as one of the most successful Chinese Internet entrepreneur. He is the first mainland Chinese entrepreneur to appear on the cover of Forbes Magazine and ranks as one of the world’s billionaires. Ma was named the Financial Times’ 2013 Person of the Year because he personifies the Chinese internet referring to him as the “godfather of China’s scrappy entrepreneurial spirit.”.
 
 
Jack Ma is here to share his wealth of experience:-
 
1) Jack Ma: the mistake I regretted the most
 
In 2001, I made a mistake. I told 18 of my fellow comrades whom embarked on the entrepreneurship journey with me that the highest positions they can go is a managerial role. To fill all our Vice President and Senior Executive positions, we would have to hire from external parties.
Years later, those I hired were gone, but those whom I doubted their abilities became Vice Presidents or Directors.
I believe in two principles: Your attitude is more important than your capabilities. Similarly, your decision is more important than your capabilities!
Jack Ma: You cannot unify everyone’s thoughts, but you can unify everyone through a common goal.
  1. Don’t even trust that you are able to unify what everyone is thinking; it is impossible.
  2. 30% of people will never believe you. Do not allow your colleagues and employees to work for you, but instead let them work for a common goal.
  3. It is a lot easier to unite the company under a common goal rather than uniting the company around a particular person.

2) Jack Ma: What does a leader have that an employee doesn’t?
 
A leader should never compare his technical skills with his employee’s. Your employee should have superior technical skills that you, if he doesn’t, it means you have hired the wrong person.
What then makes the leader stands out?
  1. A leader should be a visionary and more far-sighted than an employee.
  2. A leader should have higher grit and tenacity, and be able to endure what the employees couldn’t.
  3. A leader should have higher endurance and ability to accept and embrace failure.
The quality of a good leader therefore is his vision, his tenacity, and his capability.
 
 
3) Jack Ma: Don’t be involved in politics
  1. One should always understand that money and political power can never go hand in hand. Once you are in politics, don’t ever think about money anymore. Once you are running a business, don’t ever think of being involved in the politics.
  2. When money meets political power, it is similar to a match meeting an explosive; waiting to go off.
 
 
4) Jack Ma: The 4 main questions the young generation must ponder on
  1. What is failure: Giving up is the greatest failure.
  2. What is resiliency: Once you have been through hardships, grievances and disappointments, only will you understand what is resiliency.
  3. What your duties are: To be more diligent, hardworking, and ambitious than others.
  4. Only fools use their mouth to speak. A smart man uses his brain, and a wise man uses his heart.

5) Jack Ma: We are born to live and experience life.
 
I always tell myself that we are born here not to work, but we are here to enjoy life. We are here to make things better for one another, and not to work. If you are spending your whole life working, you will certainly regret it.
No matter how successful you are in your career, you must always remember that we are here to live. If you keep yourself busy working, you will surely regret it.
 
 
6) Jack Ma on competing and competition
  1. Those that compete aggressively with one another are the foolish ones.
  2. If you view everyone as your enemies, everyone around you will be your enemies.
  3. When you are competing with one another, don’t bring hatred along. Hatred will take you down.
  4. Competition is similar to playing a board of chess. If you lose, we can always have another round. Both players should never fight.
  5. A real businessman or entrepreneur has no enemies. Once he understand this, the sky’s the limit.


7)Jack Ma: Don’t make complaining and whining a habit
 
If you complain or whine once in a while, it is not a big deal.
However, if it becomes habitual, it will be similar to drinking: the more you drink, the stronger the thirst. On the path to success, you will notice that the successful ones are not whiners nor do they complain often.
The world will not remember what you say, but it will certainly not forget what you have done.
Jack Ma’s advices to entrepreneurs
  1. The opportunities that everyone cannot see, are the real opportunities.
  2. Always let your employees come to work with a smile.
  3. Customers should be number 1, Employees number 2, and then only your Shareholders come at number 3.
  4. Adopt and change before any major trends or changes.
  5. Forget the money; Forget about earning money.
  6. Rather than having small smart tricks to get by, focus on keep holding on and presevering.
  7. Your attitude determines your altitude.
 
8) Jack Ma on entrepreneurship
  1. A great opportunity is often hard to be explained clearly; things that can be explained clearly are often not the best opportunities.
  2. You should find someone who has complementary skills to start a company with. You shouldn’t necessarily look for someone successful. Find the right people, not the best people.
  3. The most unreliable thing in this world is human relationships.
  4. “Free” is the most expensive word.
  5. Today is cruel, tomorrow will be worse, but the day after tomorrow will be beautiful.
 
 
9) Jack Ma: The 4 don’ts of entrepreneurship
  1. The scariest things about starting up is the inability to see, being snobbish, unable to understand what is going on, as well as unable to keep up with the pace.
  2. If you do not know where your competitor is, and if you are overconfident and snobbish about your competitor, unable to comprehend how your competitor became a real threat, you will surely fall behind him. Don’t be the “they” in this idiom: First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.
  3. Even if your competitor is still small in size or still weak, you should take him seriously and treat him as a giant. Likewise, even if your competitor is massive in size, you shouldn’t regard yourself as a weakling.
 
10) Jack Ma on starting your own company
 
What starting your company means: you will lose your stable income, your right to apply for a leave of absence, and your right to get a bonus.
However, it also means your income will no longer be limited, you will use your time more effectively, and you will no longer need to beg for favours from people anymore.
If you have a different mindset, you will have a different outcome: if you make different choices from your peers, your life will then be different from your peers.
 
Jack Ma on opportunities
If there are over 90% of the crowd saying “Yes” approving a proposal, I will surely dispose the proposal into the bin. The reason is simple: if there are so many people who thinks that the proposal is good, surely there will be many people who would have been working on it, and the opportunities no longer belong to us.

Monday, 20 January 2014

Different between professional trader and normal investor.

This is the different between professional investors and normal investors. 
 
“真正的股市高手,对于卖掉赔钱的股票从不心疼;只要手中持股的走势与预期相反,哪怕只是下跌5~10%,一定会理智地执行停损,以免落入一波更大的跌幅之中。高手投资股票的第一原则是,宁可不赚,但绝不能大赔,一次都不可以!”

——胡立阳老师

Tuesday, 17 December 2013

很多穷人都有过梦想,甚至有过机遇,有过行动,但要坚持到底却很难。 面对生活中偶尔的不如意,要学会坚强的微笑。

有个穷人,很穷,一个富人见他可怜,就起了善心,想帮他致富。富人送给他一头牛,嘱他好好开荒,等春天来了撒上种子,秋天就可以远离那个“穷”字了。
 
 穷人满怀希望开始奋斗。可是没过几天, 牛要吃草,人要吃饭,日子比过去还难。穷人就想,不如把牛卖了,买几只羊,先杀一只吃,剩下的还可以生小羊,长大了拿去卖,可以赚更多的钱。
 
穷人的计划如愿以偿,只是吃了一只羊之后,小羊迟迟没有生下来,日子又艰难了,忍不住又吃了一只……。穷人想:这样下去不得了,不如把羊卖了,买成鸡,鸡生蛋的速度要快一些,鸡蛋立刻可以赚钱,日子立刻可以好转。...
穷人的计划又如愿以偿了,但是日子并没有改变,又艰难了,又忍不住杀鸡,终于杀到只剩一只鸡时,穷人的理想彻底崩溃。
 
他想:致富是无望了,还不如把鸡卖了, 打上一壶酒,三杯下肚,万事不愁。
很快春天来了,发善心的富人兴致勃勃送种子来,竟然发现穷人正就着咸菜喝酒, 牛早就没有了,房子里依然一贫如洗。 富人转身走了。穷人仍然一直穷著。
 
很多穷人都有过梦想,甚至有过机遇,有过行动,但要坚持到底却很难。
 
据一个投资家说,他的成功秘诀就是:没钱时,不管再困难,也不要动用投资和积蓄,压力会使你找到赚钱的新方法,帮你还清账单。这是个好习惯。性格形成习惯,习惯决定成功。
越是有故事的人,越沉静简单; 越肤浅单薄的人,越浮躁不安。
"强者"不是没有眼泪,而是含着眼泪依然奔跑。
 
人最先衰老的不是容貌,而是那份不顾一切的闯劲。
 
有时候:要敢于背上,超出自己预料的包袱,经历一段努力后,发现自己比想象的优秀很多。 
 
成功的人:一般不是才华横溢的人,而是,最能以亲切和蔼的态度给人以好感的人。
一个人,不能改变自己的形象:却能改变自己的气质; 一个人,不能达到理想的高度:却能提高自己的水平。
人际交往中:善良、热情、诚信更容易给人以好感。
微笑,比礼貌更亲切:会给人阳光般的温暖。
不是眼泪就能挽回失去; 不是所有人都值得付出;
不是伤心就一定要哭泣; 不是表情都要写在脸上;
不是任何人都能理解你。
所以:面对生活中偶尔的不如意,要学会坚强的微笑。有一句话:一切都有最好的安排一一只要你坚持

Wednesday, 9 October 2013

Trading Rules (LionGold)

Mid August I mentioned that LionGold was reaching its 25% centre of gravity.  Any counter when it exit 20% CG, it need to pull back.  However LionGold exited its max 30% CG.  And there was no ticket for shortening inside the CFD.  Therefore, it has only one direction - up.  Nevertheless, if we analyst its financial statement, looking at its PE, ROE........that time the price was too far way out. 

Small fish like me, should not chase after the price.  We never know when the big fishes going to let go.  We need to understand in the market, there are these 2 groups for traders.  One group wants the price the go up, the other group look for opportunity to short.  Penny stock can move so fast and so far is because of these 2 groups of traders  When I trade penny stock, I always tell myself - don't be greed.   And never chase after the price.  I may win today but I may loss everything in just one trade if I do not follow the trading rule.  Remember - All rules are laid down by investment and trading guru because they have lost enough.  We should follow instead of thinking that we are always right.