Christmas rally?

Some said it is time to buy....some said long term down trend and short up trend.......some said correction is over don't miss this opportunity........Christmas rally..........Singapore property has already bottom.........

In general, markets came down between 16% to 44%.  Not surprising, mature markets came down lesser than the emerging market.  Difference on the down side in term of percent, happen not only today, ten, twenty years back was this way, 10 years from now will still the same.  http://achua138.blogspot.sg/2015/08/why-asia-market-tumbled.html

As I said - first time in history, bull charge for more than 5 years.  He was tired and the mama bear took the opportunity to pound on him.  Nevertheless, the bull still has the last breath and he will fight back.  And that was what we were seeing over the past few weeks.  How far can he goes? 

I mentioned that - with politician involvement, the market is not easy to foresee and predict.  Past one to two months, I saw lots of retail investors/traders chose to stay out.  We saw market went down and the up like coasters.  Experts said that it was because of the US, FED will not raise their interest rate in October, in Y2015.  Why?  Because of the poor monthly data numbers.....

Those were only an excuses and 骗人的借口.  The person who really moved the current going around were the fund, institution.......Lousy PMI numbers, lousy non-farm numbers........if someone is going to tell me those numbers are great as it means that interest rate is not going to raise.  You know what I am going to ask him/her?  Continue to have those poor numbers for 3 months, then you continue to tell me oh good........  Common sense tells us whether those lousy numbers are from the US, Europe, China.....or anywhere, what does that means?  Something wrong is with their economic, isn't it.  Then what the expert going to say next?  Oh another QE?  You will come to a day where people is going to be sick of that QE.

First time in history, country after country are printing money.  Interest rate close to zero.  The next crisis going to come, won't be that easy as what we think.  Now, those people who save their money inside the bank is stupid, right?  Why?  Because of depreciation, inflation........  Inflation really at 0.1%, 0% -0.1%.......you better know how this number was calculated.  Your daily expense, a plate of chicken or a can of baby milk powder, how much it cost in 5 to 10 years back compare to now?

Concern and worry about China economic growth.  That's only one part of the story.  As I said knowing and respect the big brother.  Janet Yellen knows the consequence of raising interest rate when everyone is printing money.  What she was doing was to buy time and doing something which called psychology approach.

Today market is mend for trade.  You will continue to see the coaster ride.  Whether the bull will bring us to another peak or papa bear will pound on him before he exited the peak, I know only one thing, the market is at current situation - refer to the chart.  The Y2007 scenario. 

As for Singapore property bottoming up, is time to buy?  Refer to my past posted - http://achua138.blogspot.sg/2015/08/singapore-property-market-really-bottom.html.  You are going to see housing rental, office rental, industry rental coming down, private property................http://achua138.blogspot.sg/2014/01/hdb-resales-price-falls-for-first-time.html.

Careful on Taiwan Future - an exhausted gap has just took place

How fast and far interest rate moves is more important than the first raised

Another no outcome FOMC.  Like what I said - Janet Yellen knows the consequence of raising interest rate when everyone is printing money.

Is really no good when we have too much of "The boy who cried for the wolf"  Interest rate definitely needs to raise.  What Janet did now was to buy time.  Timing of raising the interest is one thing.  Most important is how fast and how far the interest rate moves after the first raised.

Traders and investors, we just need to be on guard and trade what you see.


************************  CONTINUE WRITING - PART 2   ***************************

I did some researched on the weekend.  Instead of opening a new file, I decided to continue writing it inside this "How fast and far interest rate moves is more important than the first raised".

As I mentioned, Janet knows the consequence of raising the interest rate.  She not only buy time but she was doing something which I called "psychology game/approach". 

When Yellen announced FED is not going to increase the interest rate, US market gone up higher.  However, an hour later before closing, the indices slide down with an approximate angle of 75 degree.  Next day (last Friday), Europe and the US continued to fall.  Europe 3 major indices came down around 1.4 to 3%.  US declined with an average of 1.45%. 

Past one months, global market falls because of fear.  Fear on US may raise the interest on September.  But last 2 days, market fall was because of uncertainty. 

Investors, traders, fund.........hate uncertainty.  Watch how global market react over the next few days/weeks.  If market continues to fall, this is where the so called psychology approach comes in.  At that time, when US starts to raise their interest rate, even there is an impact on the equities market, it won't be that great.  And don't be surprise, market may welcome the approached as a clear signal that people has been waiting for has finally surface.

Next question is - how fast and how far the interest moves after the first raised.  The is very important as it is going to affect not only the equity market but also the future and property market.......  

Nightmare week for the ASIA market

This week for ASIA market, it was really a nightmare.  It rolled down fast and far.  Interest rate has already given them so much pressure, and with the additional of RMB devalued, the fear and selling pressure went high.  Regardless, retail or fund, everyone threw their towel.

Let me pull out a few charts to show you the fear that caused the fast and far downside to these indices.

STI:-

Another one : Taiwan Future

Look at the those colourful wave, how wide it was.  It showed you the fear from those investors.  How fast it came down.  Worst, morning opened with a gap down and afternoon closed lower. 

So far, STI has came down 17%, Taiwan 22%, Hang Seng also 22%......  Last week, Nikkei was still on the upside, but this week it dropped 8.8% .  What about China?  Once again, experts said that China lead the whole ASIA markets, scrolled down from the hill.  9-July, SSE has dropped 35% (3373) from its high (5178).  Then it rebounded to 4200.  Following weeks it travelled between the range of 3500 to 4000.  Today it closed at 3509. 

China devalued it RMB worried especially countries in the AISA.  To China, devalued RMB was to raised up their export competitively.  But to other countries, it was a different story.  So to stay competitive, we saw other ASIA countries devalued their currencies as well.  Plus the worry of US raising their interest rate, the impact on the ASIA markets was like two macho pounding on a person left and right shoulder at the same time. 

Now let us look at the Europe market.  Let's look at the Europe big brother DAX.  So far, they had came down 17%.  What about our big brother, US?  Let's look at DOW.  DOW has been travelling sideway for the past six months.  Last week, it broke the sideway range.  Till yesterday it has came down 7.4%.

End of next week till the week after next, there are couples of important reports and event going on.  China PMI, US PMI, Non-Farm.........and Jackson Hole.  Watch closely and trade on what you see and not what you think.  Remember today market is mend for trade.

Base on TA:-
From the chart, I see fear.  Base on the downside, currently mama bear is pounding on the bull.  But far it can go?  Most of the ASIA market has dropped more than 20%.  Base on FIBO pull plus supported level, the mama may get tire at around 30% downside.  The bull may take this opportunity to fight back.  Can the bull win the battle?  It will depend on whether the papa bear is still sleeping or awake.

Base on fundamental / economic:-
It is common for politician to step in as to save its market, currency........  However, he/she should knows when to step in and when to take a step back.  As too much involvement will cause the market to go haywire, confusion and disorder.  This is what happen to the current market.  First time in history the bull charge for more than five years.  He may still have the last breath to fight, however he is really tire right now.

What to watch out:-
As mentioned above - China PMI, US PMI, Non-Farm.......and Jackson Hole.  On top of that, I realized that most of the people is really for the increase on US interest rate.  The question now is 0.25%, 0.5%, 1% or...........  As I had said Fed chairman Janet Yellen knows the consequence, she should be smart enough to go around with the number. 

Continue to monitor how the market goes and react to those monthly reports and news.  Example if good news and market continue to fall, this is something that you should be watch out for.  Once again, today market is mend for trend. 

Singapore property market really bottom up?

On 1-September 2013, I mentioned to watch out for the Singapore property market.  The price will come down.  Both on the resale and new private property.  On top of that the rental as well.  http://achua138.blogspot.sg/2013/09/property.html

We saw that in early 2014.  Till date, say the resale HDB flat, in general it has came down around 15% to 18%. 

Past three months, we saw lot of so called property experts came out to say that it is time to buy houses now as it has bottom up.  People spent money to attend seminar which conducted by those experts as to listen ad seek to their view.

I won't listen to all these so called experts.  As I understand who and where they came from.  My view on Singapore property market is in fact it has not even reach the bottom yet.  There are still rooms for the price to go down.  Why I said that?  Simple.  Interest rate has not gone up yet.  Global stock market has not really tumble. 

I saw developers eagerly lunching and trying to sell their unit.  Hong Kong property guru Li Ka-Shing was selling his property shares.  So what was the indicator?  Watch out not only on the Singapore property market but also Hong Kong, Beijing........

Why ASIA market tumbled?

When Shanghai index crossed 4300, I declared that the SSE wave 1 bull charge has completed.  And it is time for correction.  However, the bull continued to charge all the way to 5000 point.  During that period, I kept warning everyone "do not chase after it", "look at how steep the inclined angle is", "how it went up how it will come down" and "when market tells you to sell, you better sell".  http://achua138.blogspot.sg/2015/06/second-half-shanghai-market.html

Finally, SSE tumbled on mid June.  I studied China economic and politic, TA and fundamental, and politic and I posted this on 3-July - SSE probably need a 30% correction.  http://achua138.blogspot.sg/2015/07/china-market-and-greece.html  15-June to 9-July, SSE came down from 5176 to 3373, a 35% correction. 

All these, you can called it how predictable...., how I foresee all......or magical numbers, infact they are nothing special.  I studied past history, how market moved on mature and non-mature markets.  Human greed and fear, how fund manager invests, how professional invest/trade, how retail investors/traders invest/trade....... Then I linked that to the current market situation, and from there I got the answered.  I always remind myself, never listen to others, no matter who he/she is.  Do my own research and analysis.      

As I said second half market is going to be volatile, how much and how far China market can goes, depend on this correction.    http://achua138.blogspot.sg/2015/07/knowing-who-and-respect-he-big-brother.html

Last 2 weeks, 95% of the ASIA market indices tumbled.  A lot of the so called economic experts claimed that it was because of the China market.  Was that true?  To me, no.  If it was true, China market started to plunge on 15-June, why didn't they follow. 

As I posted on 12-July http://achua138.blogspot.sg/2015/07/knowing-who-and-respect-he-big-brother.html  Knowing who is big brother and pay respect to him.  Yes, US market.  And yes, interest rate.  Then you may ask interest rate has not increase and US market did not tumble?  This is different between the mature and non-mature market.  Remember someday in end of August 2013, how numbers of ASIA markets and their currencies tumbled that related to the QE unwinding?  http://achua138.blogspot.sg/2013/08/recap-on-what-happen-in-asia.html

Too much of "The boy who cried for the wolf" is no good for USD.  Fed will definitely raise the interest rate.  Is all now about timing and how Fed managed so that it has minimum impact to the market.  Therefore, I will be watching very closely on how and what Fed does before the actual raising of interest rate take place.  And also how market react and respond before the physical announcement / actual rate rise take place too.   

Knowing who and respect he big brother

SSE came down strongly 35% and bound back up to 23% from the it top.  That was what I also means by how it went up, how it come down.  A steep up side and a steep down side that took place on China market.  Political involvement, non-mature investors.........all lead to the fast track roller coaster ride on the China market. 

Almost half of the stocks are freeze from trading.  Those who hold more than 5% of the company shares are not allow to sell their stock over the next 6 months.  The new rules took effect.  It stopped the indices from falling?  So is China market really to go for another bull charge?

I prefer China market to have some consolidation over here instead of another steep up side.  Why?   http://achua138.blogspot.sg/2015/06/second-half-shanghai-market.html  At the same time, look up when and how the freeze counters are release.....and the 5% share holders are able to..........

Greece referendum, 61% of the voters voted "No".  They rejected the creditor proposal debt settlement plan.  But now, Greece PM Alexis Tsipias seems to accept the creditors pension plan........and now they asked for €53.5bn from the creditors.  Things are not going to be easy.  EU is not about German.  It have France, Finland............ The referendum, then the result of "No" and now accepted most of the creditors proposal plan with additional counter proposal plan and asking for a higher third bailout........it is not so simple about promised, it is about "trust".  What will happen if....and what will happen if.......  Most of the people is looking at the positive side.  But as a trader, I should be on guard.  Everything goes smooth, market will go up.  But if things go wrong especially Greece is force to exit euro zone, market will react. 

Knowing who and respect the big brother.  Yes, the US.  Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen has repeated her view on Friday that the central bank is likely to start raising interest rates this year.  I will be monitoring this carefully.  How and what Fed does before the announcement of rate increase take place.  And how the market respond before physical announcement / actual rate rise.  Take note on this - this year the Asia and Europe markets have gone into a correction but the US yet.