Did you see something is coming when FED cut back QE, inflation rising .........

 S&P and NASDAQ head and shoulder strongly support on last Friday closed.

Economic in real fact wasn't good over the past 2 years but market kept going up. Why?

FED is cutting back QE, inflation rising, interest rate going up, US debt ceiling going up ...... What do you guys think? Did you see something is coming?

 Market has gone up a lot since the drop in Feb and March.  The past few 2 weeks / 10 days upside showed the big boys were trying to pushing the price up for them to let go 拉高出货。  With 2 months into  US election, I am expecting volatilely / second drop to come for this year.

Market currently at important resistant and it shows a watch up signal

Markets have been underwent the pressure test / going sideway over the last 2.5 weeks.  Wednesday markets broke up and yesterday it showed this -

Whether US, Europe or Asia markets and even the VIX are currently at important resistant showing a watch out signal on either MAP, 200MA, gap line.......  First week of May is an important week.

  

Markets is trying to break the FIBO 50% to fill the gap which this area is also the presuure level 压力带。

Major markets whether is US, Europe or Asia, they are trying to break the FIBO 50% to fill the gap which this area is also the presuure level 压力带。

Another chapter is coming - Europe and Asia market hit their first resistant

Europe and Asia market hit their first resistant.  US market close to their resistant as well.  This is going to be the first pressure test for the market.  Few scenario could be happen.  It may come down, it may consolidation before another great move, can either be up or down .......

What lots of central banks are trying to do were trying to reduce the great impact on their economic and hopefully by 2 to 3 months the virus may subside during summer time.  They also believe to save the economic, they have to save the stock stock first.  And history has proven that like the QE1, QE2.....

Nevertheless will this time work?  Is just a gamble.  The root cause is the virus. It may rebound but it will come down again if we continue to see country after country having lock down, people can't go out, airplane ground ....... then we will see jobless rate go up .......... is totally a economic crisis.  The longer it last, the worst it is.

People who play on rebound, do pay attention to the things happening and people around you.  Do not have a fix mindset saying that the market has been bottom.  With countries continue pumping money, QE ........ the bear is over.  Be flexible and act fast when thing goes wrong.  And always remember - Trade on what you see and not what you think.  

Piece of advice

Over the past 3 days, I have number of people asking me these:-
“Is time to go in, right?”
“I wanted to buy SIA / DBS /…., what do you think?  Is this the good time to buy SIA?”
“No, you see I just want to buy and keep.  For long term.  You know ah, this XXX stock dividend very high.” ……………

Some of these questions sound familiar, aren’t there?  I worry for all these people.

How you know and be so confident to say that the bull is taking over?  How you are so sure that this is not a 跌深反弹 nor 逃命反弹。

No one can predict price movement. You can't, I can't and nor the best analyst, trader and investor in the world. Beware of anyone who claims otherwise. When the person tell you the next market movement direction.... at time they are lucky to get it right.  The person who can constantly correctly foresee how the market will develop or how particular stock will move has yet to be born.  

We even have people out there who nurtured on all those tales of good fortune like Warren Buffett and attempt to duplicate them but in the fact they are making tons of money thru' conducting irresponsible courses.

My friends, my advice to you is to do your homework, trade and invest what you see and not what you think nor listening to others.  

I also know people who buy certain counter at the right time.  Say example at $12 and the stock went up to $15 and he did not take profit.  During this free fall, this counter went down all the way to $9.  Worst scenario is he buy more, on $13 and $11 respectively.  My friends, remember this knowing when to sell is more important than knowing when to buy. 

VIX has a inverted hammer. As long as it doesn't trigger, S&P will continue to go up

S&P inverted hammer at level triggered

Are you afraid with the current free fall? When the market going to rebound?

Recently, lots of my friends asked me about stock market. Whether they should hold or sell.

The free fall came fast, 让很多人错手不及。
I knew that last week lots of people stand by. Stanf by what? Yes, the market to rebound. However, Monday US DOW dropped by 3000 points. And it stunned everyone. Right, do you? You got more confuse, isn't it? and do not know what to do?

To hold, to sell or to buy, I am not here to give you an answer. I do not know what stock you are holding, I won't know each and every counter characteristics

But I can share these 2 tips with you.

Market only 10% of them are making money. So when everyone standby for the rebound, you think the big boys will let it happen. Any transaction, there is always a buyer and a sell. So what you think? The big boys will sell it to you, so that you guys profit from the rebound and the big boys haha... sink. No way. They are going to confuse you, shake you out, frighten you off....... So remember who are the 10% and who are the 90%. Do not follow the crowd.

You can look at all the past crisis, which ever one which ever year, market won't come down just like that. It will rebound, it will....... So when is this going happen? Find out from the people around you. From people around me, really? Yes, because 

• 行情在绝望中诞生
• 在全面欢乐中毁减

USD/SGD hit important resistant

USD/SGD steep upward hit improtant resistant.  This morning market opened it went higher and then came down and it seems like forming a shooting star.  Will it end with a shooting star and tomorrow trigger or ......... ?  Actual traders may not want to wait for that.

Look up if US and Europe don't go up anymore and start to form divergence & will ASIA market come down to test the support once again

Crude Oil yesterday inverted hammer triggered at major support with 16 tics stop loss.

Whether you are a trader or investor, do take note on the below few points

A lot of retail traders / investors will attend seminar after seminar, like hokkien said 问神, hoping their so called experts can tell them the next market movement of 1 mths, 3 mths.....down the road.

Allow me to share with you guys from a 30 years full time professional trader remarked / quoted:-

1. No one can predict price movement. You can't, I can't and nor the best analyst, trader and investor in the world. Beware of anyone who claims otherwise. When the person tell you the next market movement direction.... at time they are lucky to get it right.
2. The person who can constantly correctly foresee how the market will develop or how particular stock will move has yet to be born.
3. We have people out who nurtured on all those tales of good fortune like Warren Buffett and attempt to duplicate them but in the fact they are making tons of money thru' conducting irresponsible courses.
4. Trainers, presentators....even history ignore the real fact on majority investors. That's the 90% who lose their money in the markets.
5. Assume you are reading an article about a company with wonderful prospects. Numbers of analysts also like this company. Do you think you have the advantage? You and another half million people have heard about the company and read the same article?
6. Remember, big money is not where information is clearly divulges to the public. If 90% of investors lose money then they are clearly doing something wrong.
7. Always remember: there is someone who will profit and someone who will lose from every analyst recommendation.
8. Every transaction, there is a buyer or seller who he/she is smarter than you. They know what these 90% are doing.

DOW should locate it own support point and rebound

For the past 2 years no time to update my blog.

Recent down side scare off anyone.  Recently I wrote a short note on my facebook about recent market.

Today, I posted:

Rebounding indicator

My investing & trading friends, hope you did profit from the recent up trend and last week sky diving.

Major markets are support by either 200MA or major suport.

• US - 200MA
• Europe - Major support 
• Asia - 200MA except for Hang Seng

200MA is XXX (you guys called them experts) pyscholgy level. It should not break. If it break, it has to go back above that 200MA level between 10days, otherwise......

Looking at those charts plus VX, there should be a rebound. How this rebound like ...sideway, back and set another new high...or....拉高布空. There are 3 possibilities.

My advise is trade what you see and not what you think. And observe all those you guys so called the experts said plus the people (retail investors) around you. All the while, I don't follow the crowd.  Remember what the experts said during Brexit and Trump's US election?  Remember experts kept saying market is going to have a corerection, and markets kept going up and set new high..... 

Lastly make sure you have a stop loss.   

USD/SGD earlier hammer did not trigger. Another hammer at level signal. Will it trigger?

Look for trigger - USD/SGD hammer at support.

Corn - H&S target reached. Watching for LONG sign

EUR/USD shooting star & USD/JPY Weekly Inverted Hammer and Daily Hammer plus Divergence

行情在半信半疑中成长

I have not been updating my blog since January.  MIA, where have I been?  Well, I went for baking and pastry courses.  Currently taking a break.  Therefore, been able to squire out some of my times to update my trading and investment blog.

I knew that a lot them have been waiting for the market to crash.  However, it did not.  Instead it kept going higher and higher.  Why?

Now, ask yourself - are you a retail trader / investor or big boy?  If your answer is retail then please think and act differently from the rest.  

Let's go back to my last post.  I mentioned two important things -

1. Big boys classify into 3 categories - 主力， 大户 和 法人。
2. The market is in the progress of 拉高

Today, I give you guys another 3 more sentences:-

• 行情在绝望中诞生
• 在半信半疑中成长
• 在全面欢乐中毁减

During Brexit and US election, everyone thinking that the market will collapse if Brexit exit and Trump got selected.  You guys knew the results and of course how market reacted.  This was what I so called 行情在绝望中诞生。And who came in?  Yes, the big boy 主力。

So where are we now?  What we saw over the past eight months were 行情在半信半疑中成长。  Retail traders/investors including your so called guru, been looking for the market to crash !  Guys, past eight months, did you see 行情 在全面欢乐中？ Did everyone go crazy and show much confidence on the market?

Trade what you see and not what you think neither others think nor telling you.  Never listen to others.  Remember this -  market only 10% of the investors/traders are winning $$$$.

Big picture, the US markets up trend is still intact.  Having said that, I am watching carefully for the decelerating channel and wave flip.  And Russell has been rebounded at the major support.  

Others markets like the Europe - DAX and CAC at decelerating channel and FTSE at the sideway market.  Asia market - Nikkei testing first major support, China A50, Hang Seng and Taiwan testing their resistant.  Watch for divergence at the same time.  Basically all the market currently are testing something.  So trade what the markets are going to tell.  And make sure you know where are your risks and rewards.  Last but not least, not forgetting to observe what is happening to your surrounding.  Remember the 3 sentences that I share in today post.