One good trade

Last night, wheat hit my stop loss while I was asleep.  Loss 52 ticks.  1 ticks = $12.50 

Although I loss the fight but I still consider this as "One Good Trade".  People may ask me - am I crazy?

Allow me to quote you this person, by a true professional trader Mike Bellafiore.  He is the co-founder of SMB Capital, a proprietary trading firm in New York City.  Few years back I met him in Singapore.  He wrote this great book called "One Good Trade".  Inside the book, he shared the stories of traders who have excelled and failed and why, many trained by Mike, with an essential trading principle wrapped inside. 

Let me quote some of the sentences that written inside his book.  

One good trade doesn't mean every trade is a winning trade.  Good set up with reasonable P&L, pull the trigger that consider as a good trade.  If you see opportunity soon after one good trade, immediately re-enter again.  So there is no such thing/words such as "Damn, I cut too early", "I was scared to re-enter as I taught it would trade even lower"......... What in fact a traders look at is good set up with excellent risk and rewards, then he execute. 

I quote: Losses is something which you cannot avoid in trading/investing.  The question is here how much each time you win versus how much each time you loss.  Whenever someone ask me can I buy this XYZ counter, my first question to him/her is "What is the reason for you buying that XYZ stock?"  Secondly - "Where is your stop loss?"  and thirdly "What is the ratio of risk and reward?" 

Nigel Farage EuroParl on Brexit

Listen to Nigel Farage speech.  Those words were what I mean on my 26 June posted , eighth to tenth paragraph.  ......Will Scotland fight for independent?  Will other EU members follow what UK did?What have been done over the past few years, was to save the market instead of really saving the economic.  Lower income and sandwich class struggle to.............people became frustrated............

Hammer on wheat and corn

Hammer on wheat and corn, triggered. 

After I entered, price went against me.  Am I worry?  The answer is "no".  As I know what I am doing.  I follow my rule. 

1) I trade what I see.
2) I already preset my stop loss inside the trading platform.

This is exactly what I always said -

• Trade what you see and not what you think   
• Before you enter an order, you need to have a specific reason.  Listen to someone or because others are buying...then forget it
• Before you enter that trade ask yourself another question - where is my stop loss.  And make sure you follow this rule.  When it hit your stop loss, cut without hesitation. 

Some people may ask me, what about the profit portion.  Why I did not mention anything about this?  My answer is depend on your personal appetite.  For me, I shall let profit run.  I will only take profit when there is a sell signal for this case.  This is what I called "your stop loss is controllable but your profit is unlimited".     

Brexit panic wiped $2 trillions off world market

Last Friday, we saw a typical roller coaster ride in the global market.  Asia investors/traders were the first one to take the ride. 

Asia market plunged around 2% after market opened when result showed that Brexit's voters was leading.  Around 10am, market turned around when result showed Bremain voters leaded.  Market shoot up, broke Thursday closing price and some markets even crossed their resistant level. Unfortunately this cheer did not last long.  An hour later, once again Brexit turned around to lead.  This time, market took the second plunge, all the way down to negative 3%, 4%, 5%.......  US future even at one time triggered the 5% cooling alarm.  FTSE future down by 9.5%....... 

The ride did not stop here. At 3pm, Europe stock market opened.  CAC, DAX.......plunged seem unstoppable.  However, hours later, we started to see FTSE recovered from its -9.5% loss to -7.5% to -6.5%......  By then, Asia market went into T+1.  By 9.30pm, US stock markets opened.  Global market started to follow the US, recovered from losses.  Unfortunately, this gained did not last long either.  Hours later, markets started to plunge once again al the way to closing.

This Brexit panic wiped $2 trillions off world market.  Sterling pound slumped to 31 years low.  In Singapore, several people rushed to the money changer, hoping to cash in on the sliding pound.  However, these people were disappointed after being turned away by money changers who either refused to sell or claimed they had no more stock.

More than seventy-five percent of the people did not expect Brexit to happen.  If you are one of them who tap on to a lot of the so called expert called, you should know most of them has little worried about the result of the Brexit to happen.  When labour MP Jo Cox was shot on 16-Jun, market shoot up.  We saw UK market continuously up for seven days ranging between 1% to 3.5%.  I received message, email, called from my those well known remiser (retail investors/traders called them expert) advice me to buy.  And so once again, I learned what I had been always been sharing in my blog - Do not trust anyone, do your own homework.  And trade what you see and not what you think.

The Brexit result is out, so what next? 

How much more the market is going to sell down?  That very much depend on the result aftermath.  PM David Cameron announced resign.  Scotland first minister Nicola Sturgeon pledges to protect Scottish EU interests.  More than two million have signed a petition calling for a second EU votes.........Will Scotland fight for independent?  Will other EU members follow what UK did?  This is something that worry the EU most. 

Over the past few years, we saw country after country printing money, lower their interest rate.........   All those artificial things been done did not really help the economic.  Instead, it went into the market.

People, the lowest income together with the sandwich class struggled to survive.  They don't live much happier than yesterday, the day before, the month before, the year before......... We saw inflation number with only 0.5%, some countries even having 0%, -0.5%, ........  But ask ourselves the daily food, groceries....that we purchase, got more expensive or cheaper?  And by how much?  Oil came down from hundred over dollars to forty over dollars.  You drive your car to the petrol station.  How much you are paying per litres?   

These people became frustrated.  They started to vote for someone who really speak for them.  Beside the Brexit, we look at the recent selected Philippine president Rordrigo Duterte, US Donald Trump........  Of course, how capable those guys are, that is another side of the story.  However, if they are able to prove their capabilities after been elected and got into the parliament, by then we will start to see politician starts to go into the another direction. 

The next few days or even weeks, market can be very volatile.  It may not be that easy and straight forward.  How panicked the market can be, depends on what I mentioned earlier- the aftermath.  Government funds will come in to support the equities market.  Short term and intraday traders will do the ride.  This group of traders can go either way.  One thing for sure, they will surf with wind direction.  So trade with care.

My new website: http://achua138.wix.com/mysite

Friday, number of markets end with a sell signal

Big boys think, see and act differently from the majority.  End of April, we saw the panic sell down by the retail traders / investors.  These people were worried about the curse of "Sell in May and go away".  But then what the big boys did?  Have you ask yourself, you, yourself, coffee shop uncles and aunties were selling, then where the buyers come from?  Who are they?

Whenever you feel/think that the market 完蛋了, the hope and greed return.  The market turned around in mid May.  The big boys created hope.  And there we were, the greed returned.  People started to buy.

温水煮青蛙.  Europe and Asia market are inside the bear territory.  I said that many times, the market will not crash like what we saw in Y2009.  The US market is still on bull.  So beside the Bexit,, watch the US market closely. 

The roller coaster ride will continue.  Friday end with number of indictors like STI bearish engulfing triggered, Taiwan IB, Hang Seng shooting star, FTSE and CAC IB triggered, DOW and S&P IB triggered.............  So be very careful this week.  Volatility is back again. 


Past few weeks, I worked on one new website.  Here is the link:  http://achua138.wix.com/mysite

New website

Once again Taiwan took the lead.  16-May, we saw a hammer and next day triggered.  Following 3 weeks, it went up significantly (you can see from the below chart).  Thursday and Friday, Taiwan market closed for the dumpling festival.  Nevertheless, Wednesday it closed with an IB.  Look out on next Monday if it trigger. 

These few weeks, I worked on one new website.  Here is the link:  http://achua138.wix.com/mysite

Appreciate your support.