Count down, the last FOMC for Y2015. Will US raise their interest rate?
Base on psychology approach (as I kept mentioning over the past few months), recent ECB approached on their QE, Japan........there is a high chance that FED will announce their plan and timeframe on their first rate hike since 2009. When this happen, how will market respond?
As I mentioned on 11-Dec (http://achua138.blogspot.sg/2015/11/once-again-taiwan-market-took-lead.html) once again Taiwan took the lead. Repeat what happened in Apr'15 - gap up, gap up then followed by a black candle and then trend started to turn. Weeks later, we saw other ASIA markets followed - STI, SETI, Hang Seng........... Except for Nikkei and China.
Japan is printing money, therefore she is able to hold up. However, last Thursday, we saw Nikkei broke its higher low and Friday with a retest. So watch out, it could retest and go. For Nikkei to continue its up trend, it needs to trade above 19500.
China government kept trimming their interest rate in order to boost its economic/GDP. After the big dropped in Jun and Aug'15, China SSE was able to trade inside s sideway range even though how much other ASIA market has drilled. How long can it hold? Same as usually I like to look at their Future China A50 before I look at SSE. A50, same as SSE - sideway. Sideway range support 9800 and its major support at 8377.
Last 2 weeks, we saw Europe market followed. DAX, FTSE and CAC. Breaking their higher low. Example of CAC, from the chart I see fear.
What about the US? Yesterday, we have some experts guru said that "forget about the bear, we are still in the bull......short seller will find themselves scrambling for their lives........." Well......??? On big picture, yes 2the US market is still on bull but it is very fragile. Look at the chart of DOW, S&P and NASDAQ. They have double top and last Friday, it closed at its first importance support level.
Volatile is back. Market shake each time when it come to the decision (FED) of rate hike. Raising of interest rate is non-favourable to ASIA and emerging markets as fund will flow back to US. Artificial everywhere. 温水煮青蛙 next crisis surface is going to be worst than what we saw in Y2008/Y2009. Today market is mend for trade. Learn to short the market instead of just long/buy.
Base on psychology approach (as I kept mentioning over the past few months), recent ECB approached on their QE, Japan........there is a high chance that FED will announce their plan and timeframe on their first rate hike since 2009. When this happen, how will market respond?
As I mentioned on 11-Dec (http://achua138.blogspot.sg/2015/11/once-again-taiwan-market-took-lead.html) once again Taiwan took the lead. Repeat what happened in Apr'15 - gap up, gap up then followed by a black candle and then trend started to turn. Weeks later, we saw other ASIA markets followed - STI, SETI, Hang Seng........... Except for Nikkei and China.
Japan is printing money, therefore she is able to hold up. However, last Thursday, we saw Nikkei broke its higher low and Friday with a retest. So watch out, it could retest and go. For Nikkei to continue its up trend, it needs to trade above 19500.
