Nightmare week for the ASIA market

This week for ASIA market, it was really a nightmare.  It rolled down fast and far.  Interest rate has already given them so much pressure, and with the additional of RMB devalued, the fear and selling pressure went high.  Regardless, retail or fund, everyone threw their towel.

Let me pull out a few charts to show you the fear that caused the fast and far downside to these indices.

STI:-

Another one : Taiwan Future

Look at the those colourful wave, how wide it was.  It showed you the fear from those investors.  How fast it came down.  Worst, morning opened with a gap down and afternoon closed lower. 

So far, STI has came down 17%, Taiwan 22%, Hang Seng also 22%......  Last week, Nikkei was still on the upside, but this week it dropped 8.8% .  What about China?  Once again, experts said that China lead the whole ASIA markets, scrolled down from the hill.  9-July, SSE has dropped 35% (3373) from its high (5178).  Then it rebounded to 4200.  Following weeks it travelled between the range of 3500 to 4000.  Today it closed at 3509. 

China devalued it RMB worried especially countries in the AISA.  To China, devalued RMB was to raised up their export competitively.  But to other countries, it was a different story.  So to stay competitive, we saw other ASIA countries devalued their currencies as well.  Plus the worry of US raising their interest rate, the impact on the ASIA markets was like two macho pounding on a person left and right shoulder at the same time. 

Now let us look at the Europe market.  Let's look at the Europe big brother DAX.  So far, they had came down 17%.  What about our big brother, US?  Let's look at DOW.  DOW has been travelling sideway for the past six months.  Last week, it broke the sideway range.  Till yesterday it has came down 7.4%.

End of next week till the week after next, there are couples of important reports and event going on.  China PMI, US PMI, Non-Farm.........and Jackson Hole.  Watch closely and trade on what you see and not what you think.  Remember today market is mend for trade.

Base on TA:-
From the chart, I see fear.  Base on the downside, currently mama bear is pounding on the bull.  But far it can go?  Most of the ASIA market has dropped more than 20%.  Base on FIBO pull plus supported level, the mama may get tire at around 30% downside.  The bull may take this opportunity to fight back.  Can the bull win the battle?  It will depend on whether the papa bear is still sleeping or awake.

Base on fundamental / economic:-
It is common for politician to step in as to save its market, currency........  However, he/she should knows when to step in and when to take a step back.  As too much involvement will cause the market to go haywire, confusion and disorder.  This is what happen to the current market.  First time in history the bull charge for more than five years.  He may still have the last breath to fight, however he is really tire right now.

What to watch out:-
As mentioned above - China PMI, US PMI, Non-Farm.......and Jackson Hole.  On top of that, I realized that most of the people is really for the increase on US interest rate.  The question now is 0.25%, 0.5%, 1% or...........  As I had said Fed chairman Janet Yellen knows the consequence, she should be smart enough to go around with the number. 

Continue to monitor how the market goes and react to those monthly reports and news.  Example if good news and market continue to fall, this is something that you should be watch out for.  Once again, today market is mend for trend. 

Singapore property market really bottom up?

On 1-September 2013, I mentioned to watch out for the Singapore property market.  The price will come down.  Both on the resale and new private property.  On top of that the rental as well.  http://achua138.blogspot.sg/2013/09/property.html

We saw that in early 2014.  Till date, say the resale HDB flat, in general it has came down around 15% to 18%. 

Past three months, we saw lot of so called property experts came out to say that it is time to buy houses now as it has bottom up.  People spent money to attend seminar which conducted by those experts as to listen ad seek to their view.

I won't listen to all these so called experts.  As I understand who and where they came from.  My view on Singapore property market is in fact it has not even reach the bottom yet.  There are still rooms for the price to go down.  Why I said that?  Simple.  Interest rate has not gone up yet.  Global stock market has not really tumble. 

I saw developers eagerly lunching and trying to sell their unit.  Hong Kong property guru Li Ka-Shing was selling his property shares.  So what was the indicator?  Watch out not only on the Singapore property market but also Hong Kong, Beijing........

Why ASIA market tumbled?

When Shanghai index crossed 4300, I declared that the SSE wave 1 bull charge has completed.  And it is time for correction.  However, the bull continued to charge all the way to 5000 point.  During that period, I kept warning everyone "do not chase after it", "look at how steep the inclined angle is", "how it went up how it will come down" and "when market tells you to sell, you better sell".  http://achua138.blogspot.sg/2015/06/second-half-shanghai-market.html

Finally, SSE tumbled on mid June.  I studied China economic and politic, TA and fundamental, and politic and I posted this on 3-July - SSE probably need a 30% correction.  http://achua138.blogspot.sg/2015/07/china-market-and-greece.html  15-June to 9-July, SSE came down from 5176 to 3373, a 35% correction. 

All these, you can called it how predictable...., how I foresee all......or magical numbers, infact they are nothing special.  I studied past history, how market moved on mature and non-mature markets.  Human greed and fear, how fund manager invests, how professional invest/trade, how retail investors/traders invest/trade....... Then I linked that to the current market situation, and from there I got the answered.  I always remind myself, never listen to others, no matter who he/she is.  Do my own research and analysis.      

As I said second half market is going to be volatile, how much and how far China market can goes, depend on this correction.    http://achua138.blogspot.sg/2015/07/knowing-who-and-respect-he-big-brother.html

Last 2 weeks, 95% of the ASIA market indices tumbled.  A lot of the so called economic experts claimed that it was because of the China market.  Was that true?  To me, no.  If it was true, China market started to plunge on 15-June, why didn't they follow. 

As I posted on 12-July http://achua138.blogspot.sg/2015/07/knowing-who-and-respect-he-big-brother.html  Knowing who is big brother and pay respect to him.  Yes, US market.  And yes, interest rate.  Then you may ask interest rate has not increase and US market did not tumble?  This is different between the mature and non-mature market.  Remember someday in end of August 2013, how numbers of ASIA markets and their currencies tumbled that related to the QE unwinding?  http://achua138.blogspot.sg/2013/08/recap-on-what-happen-in-asia.html

Too much of "The boy who cried for the wolf" is no good for USD.  Fed will definitely raise the interest rate.  Is all now about timing and how Fed managed so that it has minimum impact to the market.  Therefore, I will be watching very closely on how and what Fed does before the actual raising of interest rate take place.  And also how market react and respond before the physical announcement / actual rate rise take place too.